This report examined three potential indicators of college enrollment school and district staff might use to identify and support students at risk of not attending college: (1) Chicago: Designed to predict high school graduation; based on earning six course credits--the minimum to advance to the next grade in HISD--and having at most one semester…

This chapter describes the role of career decision-making self-efficacy, academic satisfaction, and institutional support in predicting Korean students' intent to persist in the Academic Credit Bank System.

Conventional pundits, pollsters, and forecasters are focused on whether the economy will improve sufficiently in 2012 for President Barack Obama to gain reelection. The Keys to the White House, a prediction system that the author developed in collaboration with Vladimir Keilis-Borok, founder of the International Institute of Earthquake Prediction…

The Keys to the White House is a historically-based system for predicting the result of the popular vote in American presidential elections. The Keys system tracks the big picture of how well the party holding the White House has governed and does not shift with events of the campaign. This model gives specificity to the idea that it is…

In a provocative and influential paper, Jesse Rothstein (2010) finds that standard value added models (VAMs) suggest implausible future teacher effects on past student achievement, a finding that obviously cannot be viewed as causal. This is the basis of a falsification test (the Rothstein falsification test) that appears to indicate bias in VAM…

Declining college admission test scores during the 1970s raised concerns that America's primary schools were inadequately preparing students for college or the workforce. Rock's (1985) analysis of SAT scores indicated that seniors in 1980 scoring at the 50th percentile for vocabulary would have placed at the 41st percentile in 1972. Mathematics…

This article outlines shortcomings of currently used university admissions tests and discusses ways in which they could potentially be improved, summarizing two projects designed to enhance college and university admissions. The projects were inspired by the augmented theory of successful intelligence, according to which successful intelligence…

We develop a model of induced innovation that applies to medical research. Our model yields three empirical predictions. First, initial death rates and subsequent research effort should be positively correlated. Second, research effort should be associated with more rapid mortality declines. Third, as a byproduct of targeting the most common…

The Brief Academic Competence Evaluation Screening System (BACESS) is a broadband universal screening instrument with three increasingly stringent phases for the identification of children at risk for academic and related behavior difficulties. The development of the BACESS involved two samples of students: K-5 students (n = 827) from the…

The Early Warning System is a tool developed by the National High School Center to collect data on indicators including attendance, grade point average, course failures, and credits earned. These indicators have been found to be highly predictive of a student's likelihood of dropping out of high school in large, urban areas. The Early Warning…

For more than two decades, the enrollment funnel has shaped how enrollment managers planned their enrollment strategies. It was a reliable, effective model for enrollment behavior, and campuses could shape their strategies around it. In recent years, however, demographic changes as well as technological advances have rendered the traditional…

Compares four closed-formula estimators (Burkett, Claudy, Rozeboom, Browne) and the omit-one method for estimating TRS, the true shrunken correlation (not to be confused with TR, the true multiple correlation). Recommendations are based on artificial populations with known TRS. (Author/SV)

Today's students experience a great deal of pressure to succeed in school. Since predictors of academic performance are widely used to assess student capabilities, the relationship between one such test, the California Psychological Inventory (CPI), and academic success are examined in this paper. The focus here is on the non-cognitive variables…

The majority of depressive symptoms, prevalent among adults (without a history of a depressive disorder) entering alcohol treatment, usually abate within 2 to 3 weeks of abstinence without specific depression-focussed intervention, but some hospitalized alcoholics experience significant depressive symptoms despite sustained abstinence. Such…

Some early childhood variables are examined to evaluate their predictive validity. The selection of children needing early childhood Title I services is complicated by the lack of criteria for defining who is educationally disadvantaged and the special problems of early childhood testing and measurement. The study used re-analysis of longitudinal…