Probabilistic machine learning increasingly informs critical decisions in medicine, economics, politics, and beyond. To aid the development of trust in these decisions, we develop a taxonomy delineating where trust in an analysis can break down: (1) in the translation of real-world goals to goals on a particular set of training data, (2) in the…

There is growing pressure to make efficacy experiments more useful. This requires attending to the twin goals of generalizing experimental results to those schools that will use the results and testing the intervention's theory of action. We show how electronic records, created naturally during the daily operation of technology-based…

This article presents "The Two Children Problem," published by Martin Gardner, who wrote a famous and widely-read math puzzle column in the magazine "Scientific American," and a problem presented by puzzler Gary Foshee. This paper explains the paradox of Problems 2 and 3 and many other variations of the theme. Then the authors…

I present evidence from Navajo and English that weaker, gradient versions of morpheme-internal phonotactic constraints, such as the ban on geminate consonants in English, hold even across prosodic word boundaries. I argue that these lexical biases are the result of a MAXIMUM ENTROPY phonotactic learning algorithm that maximizes the probability of…

The goal of any behavioral program is to facilitate lasting change. A significant criticism of behavioral programs is that they work in the clinical setting but do not generalize once the clinical program is stopped. The authors suggest that behavioral programs often do not generalize because clinicians fail to plan for generalization to occur…

In this paper the authors present a new method for sample selection for scale-up experiments. This method uses propensity score matching methods to create a sample that is similar in composition to a well-defined generalization population. The method they present is flexible and practical in the sense that it identifies units to be targeted for…

A wealth of empirical evidence has now accumulated concerning animals' categorizing photographs of real-world objects. Although these complex stimuli have the advantage of fostering rapid category learning, they are difficult to manipulate experimentally and to represent in formal models of behavior. We present a solution to the representation…

The remarkable successes of the physical sciences have been built on highly general quantitative laws, which serve as the basis for understanding an enormous variety of specific physical systems. How far is it possible to construct universal principles in the cognitive sciences, in terms of which specific aspects of perception, memory, or decision…

The subject matter presented in this article can be used in the classroom to enrich the learning experience of students taking a course that includes a unit on combinatorics, such as discrete mathematics, graph theory, or probability. In order to provide such students with the background needed to appreciate the significance of the generalization…

Students are usually quick to draw conclusions about their surroundings. Their generalizations, however, are often based on a single experience or even a story recounted by a friend. An individual's ability to reason inductively improves as he gains more experience in the world. The ability to draw broad conclusions also improves with an…