Most enrollment management systems today use historical data to build rough forecasts of what percentage of students will likely accept an offer of enrollment based on historical acceptance rates. While this aggregate forecast method has its uses, we propose that building an enrollment model based on predicting an individual's likelihood of…

This post is one in a series highlighting MDRC's methodological work. Contributors discuss the refinement and practical use of research methods being employed across the organization. Across policy domains, practitioners and researchers are benefiting from a trend of greater access to both more detailed and frequent data and the increased…

The purpose of the recently proposed "p[subscript rep]" statistic is to estimate the probability of concurrence, that is, the probability that a replicate experiment yields an effect of the same sign (Killeen, 2005a). The influential journal "Psychological Science" endorses "p[subscript rep]" and recommends its use…

This article introduces the concept of a prediction interval in a gambling context.

For much of the twentieth century, Markov theory and Markov processes have been widely accepted as valid ways to view statistical variables and parameters. In the complex realm of online searching, where researchers are always seeking the route to the best search strategies and the most powerful query terms and sequences, Markov process analysis…

A model is proposed for the clinical synthesis of data from psychological tests of persons with visual impairments. The model integrates the concepts of the ideal type and Bayesian probability and compares actual test scores with ideal scores through use of a pattern similarity coefficient. A pilot study with Business Enterprise Program operators…

Describes advances in capture-recapture modeling, including the biologically motivated emphasis on model-based hypothesis testing and the development of models for spatially stratified populations. Discusses the severe problems associated with count statistics reflecting unknown sampling fractions. (67 references) (KR)

A procedure for developing a nomogram that depicts expectancy of success on a criterion from performance on two predictors is presented. Data from 574 medical students attending Michigan State University College of Human Medicine's classes of 1979 through 1984 were used to develop a model for predicting the expectancy of success on Part I of the…

Describes a class experiment illustrating students' illusions about their own mortality (often referred to as "unique invulnerability"). The students received information, culled from actuarial tables, concerning age and mortality rates. The students consistently overestimated their own age of death even when told they would do so. (MJP)

Due to factors such as high enrollment demands, limited institutional space, and high program costs, certain admissions requirements in the guidance/selection of students for health technology programs at Virginia Western Community College (VWCC) have become necessary. A Health Technology Admissions Evaluation System was created to develop and…