A mysterious conflict of solutions emerged when a group of tenth- and eleventh-grade students were studying a seemingly ordinary problem on combination and probability. By investigating the mysterious "conflicts" caused by multiple randomization procedures, students will gain a deeper understanding of what it means to perform a task…

Analysis of binary choice behavior in iterated tasks with immediate feedback reveals robust deviations from maximization that can be described as indications of 3 effects: (a) a payoff variability effect, in which high payoff variability seems to move choice behavior toward random choice; (b) underweighting of rare events, in which alternatives…

This article models the cognitive processes underlying learning and sequential choice in a risk-taking task for the purposes of understanding how they occur in this moderately complex environment and how behavior in it relates to self-reported real-world risk taking. The best stochastic model assumes that participants incorrectly treat outcome…

This paper summarizes the thinking of 84 middle school mathematics students' about variability in three stochastics tasks that involve repeated trial. Differences in students' acknowledgment of variability were found, depending on whether the task was from a sampling environment, or a probability environment. Students tended to neglect variability…