Previous research is mixed regarding whether laypeople are sensitive to sample size. Here the author argues that this is in part because sample size sensitivity follows a curvilinear function with decreasing sensitivity as sample size become larger. This functional form reconciles apparent discrepancies in the literature, accounting for results…

Identifying patterns in the world requires noticing not only unusual occurrences, but also unusual absences. We examined how people learn from absences, manipulating the extent to which an absence is expected. People can make two types of inferences from the absence of an event: either the event is possible but has not yet occurred, or the event…

People have strong intuitions about the influence objects exert upon one another when they collide. Because people's judgments appear to deviate from Newtonian mechanics, psychologists have suggested that people depend on a variety of task-specific heuristics. This leaves open the question of how these heuristics could be chosen, and how to…

Many theories of human cognition postulate that people are equipped with a repertoire of strategies to solve the tasks they face. This theoretical framework of a cognitive toolbox provides a plausible account of intra- and interindividual differences in human behavior. Unfortunately, it is often unclear how to rigorously test the toolbox…

According to Bayesian theories in psychology and neuroscience, minds and brains are (near) optimal in solving a wide range of tasks. We challenge this view and argue that more traditional, non-Bayesian approaches are more promising. We make 3 main arguments. First, we show that the empirical evidence for Bayesian theories in psychology is weak.…

This paper illustrates how information collected through interviews can develop a richer understanding of the assignment mechanism, which can result in more plausible causal effect estimates from observational studies and provides a roadmap for sensitivity analysis. Focusing on the issue of assignment to algebra in 8th grade, the author shows how…

Procedures based on latent trait models and the Rasch model are described for computation and asymptotic statistical inference for two decision consistency indexes often used in mastery or competence testing. Simulations were conducted for typical mastery testing situations to illustrate the procedures. (SLD)

Authors who write introductory business statistics texts do not agree on when to use a t distribution and when to use a Z distribution in both the construction of confidence intervals and the use of hypothesis testing. In a survey of textbooks written in the last 15 years, we found the decision rules to be contradictory and, at times, the…

A new computer-based approach for teaching counselors about predictive validity and how to use tests in clinical decision making was developed and tested. The approach is based on concepts similar to those used in inferential statistics, particularly statistical hypothesis testing. To implement this model, the counselor must: (1) determine the…

A basic technical framework is provided for the design and use of mastery tests. The Mastery Testing Project (MTP) prepared this framework using advanced mathematics supplemented with computer simulation based on real test data collected by the South Carolina Statewide Testing Program. The MTP focused on basic technical issues encountered in using…