Spatial microsimulation encompasses a range of alternative methodological approaches for the small area estimation (SAE) of target population parameters from sample survey data down to target small areas in contexts where such data are desired but not otherwise available. Although widely used, an enduring limitation of spatial microsimulation SAE…

The decomposition of the overall effect of a treatment into direct and indirect effects is here investigated with reference to a recursive system of binary random variables. We show how, for the single mediator context, the marginal effect measured on the log odds scale can be written as the sum of the indirect and direct effects plus a residual…

Internationally, standard observational measures of Early Childhood Education and Care (ECEC) are used to assess the quality of provision. They are applied as research tools but, significantly, also guide policy decisions, distribution of resources and public opinion. Considerable faith is placed in such measures, yet their validity, reliability…

This paper analyses the reliability and accuracy of the relationships between migration and employment status when estimated using a linked data set. The analysis will be carried out using a new source, the "Labour and Geographical Mobility Statistics," which is provided by the Spanish Statistical Office. This statistic is constructed by…

The growing number of children in primary schools in Germany who have German as their second language (L2) has raised questions about the fairness of performance assessment. Fair tests are a prerequisite for distinguishing between L2 learning delay and a specific learning disability. We evaluated five commonly used reading and spelling tests for…

The Schwarz or Bayesian information criterion (BIC) is one of the most widely used tools for model comparison in social science research. The BIC, however, is not suitable for evaluating models with order constraints on the parameters of interest. This article explores two extensions of the BIC for evaluating order-constrained models, one where a…

Previous studies have detailed the consequence of ignoring a level of clustering in multilevel models with straightly hierarchical structures and have proposed methods to adjust for the fixed effect standard errors (SEs). However, in behavioral and social science research, there are usually two or more crossed clustering levels, such as when…

This rejoinder keeps the original focus on statistical computing pertaining to the correlation of student achievement between mathematics and science from the Trend in Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS). Albeit the availability of student performance data in TIMSS and the emphasis of the inter-subject connection in the Next Generation Science…

School socio-economic compositional (SEC) effects have been influential in educational research predicting a range of outcomes and influencing public policy. However, some recent studies have challenged the veracity of SEC effects when applying residualised-change and fixed effects models and simulating potential measurement errors in hierarchical…

This paper aims to present a critical analysis of the Year 1 Phonics Screening Check (PSC), with special focus on the relationship between the UK Department for Education's policy-making and the evidence considered in the process of developing and evaluating the PSC. The reports from the in-house Standards and Testing Agency and from commissioned…

Mixed Group Validation (MGV) is an approach for estimating the diagnostic accuracy of tests. MGV is a promising alternative to the more commonly used Known Groups Validation (KGV) approach for estimating diagnostic accuracy. The advantage of MGV lies in the fact that the approach does not require a perfect external validity criterion or gold…

If estimates are based on samples, they should be accompanied by appropriate standard errors and confidence intervals. This is true for scientific research in general, and is even more important if estimates are used to inform and evaluate policy measures such as those aimed at attaining the Europe 2020 poverty reduction target. In this article I…

This paper discusses the issues involved in calculating indices of composite reliability for "modular" or "unitised" assessments of the kind used in GCSEs, AS and A level examinations in England. The increasingly widespread use of on-screen marking has meant that the item-level data required for calculating indices of…

The problem of factor score indeterminacy implies that the factor and the error scores cannot be completely disentangled in the factor model. It is therefore proposed to compute Harman's factor score predictor that contains an additive combination of factor and error variance. This additive combination is discussed in the framework of classical…

This review examined a range of approaches internationally to the reporting of assessment results for individual students, with a particular focus on how results are represented, the level of detail reported and the steps taken to quantify, report and explain error and uncertainty in the results' reports or certificates given to students in a…