In the context of existing "quantitative"/"qualitative" schisms, this paper briefly reminds readers of the current practice of testing for statistical significance in social science research. This practice is based on a widespread confusion between two conditional probabilities. A worked example and other elements of logical argument demonstrate…

In his article, "An Alternative to Null-Hypothesis Significance Tests," Killeen (2005) urged the discipline to abandon the practice of "p[subscript obs]"-based null hypothesis testing and to quantify the signal-to-noise characteristics of experimental outcomes with replication probabilities. He described the coefficient that he…

The sense that replicability is an important aspect of empirical science led Killeen (2005a) to define "p[subscript rep]," the probability that a replication will result in an outcome in the same direction as that found in a current experiment. Since then, several authors have praised and criticized 'p[subscript rep]," culminating…

Although errors in reasoning about conditional probability have been the focus of interest of psychologists for a long time, the development of conditional reasoning in school students has received little attention. This paper considers the responses of 69 students across grades 3 to 13 in an attempt to model the development of appropriate…

In this paper seventh-grade pupils' ways of handling aspects of probability have been investigated. The aspects in question were embedded in a dice game, based on the total of two dice. Four different set-ups of dice were included in the situation in which they were up to explore optimal strategies for winning the game. How children understand…

A sample of 134 sixth-grade students who were using the Connected Mathematics curriculum were administered an open-ended item entitled, Vet Club (Balanced Assessment, 2000). This paper explores the role of misconceptions and naive conceptions in the acquisition of statistical thinking for middle grades students. Students exhibited misconceptions…

Previous research has shown that--due to the extensive attention spent to proportional reasoning in mathematics education--many students have a strong tendency to apply linear or proportional models anywhere, even in situations where they are not applicable. This phenomenon is sometimes referred to as the "illusion of linearity". For example, in…

This chapter provides an overview of statistical issues arising in work on educational assessment and school accountability, organized around some of the most consequential misunderstandings. The article proceeds via a series of nine vignettes describing misunderstandings of statistical uncertainty in educational assessment and school…