In the complex world of educational policy, causal inferences will be debated. As we review non-experimental designs in educational policy, we focus on how to clarify and focus the terms of debate. We begin by presenting the potential outcomes/counterfactual framework and then describe approximations to the counterfactual generated from the…

The central role of the propensity score analysis (PSA) in observational studies is for causal inference; as such, PSA is often used for making causal claims in research articles. However, there are still some issues for researchers to consider when making claims of causality using PSA results. This summary first briefly reviews PSA, followed by…

Predicting the future is a basic problem that people have to solve every day and a component of planning, decision making, memory, and causal reasoning. In this article, we present 5 experiments testing a Bayesian model of predicting the duration or extent of phenomena from their current state. This Bayesian model indicates how people should…

D. B. Rubin's model for causal inference in experiments and observational studies is enlarged to analyze the problem of "causes causing causes" and is compared to path analysis and recursive structural equations models. A special quasiexperimental design, the encouragement design, is used to give concreteness to the discussion by…

Causal effect modeling with naturalistic rather than experimental data is challenging. In observational studies participants in different treatment conditions may also differ on pretreatment characteristics that influence outcomes. Propensity score methods can theoretically eliminate these confounds for all observed covariates, but accurate…

Inferential conditions in the statistical detection of measurement bias are discussed in the contexts of differential item functioning and predictive bias in educational and employment settings. It is concluded that bias measures that rely strictly on observed measures are not generally diagnostic of measurement bias or lack of bias. (SLD)