This paper looks at the tension between the desire to claim predictive ability for Agent-Based Models (ABMs) and its extreme difficulty for social and ecological systems, suggesting that this is the main cause for the continuance of a rhetoric of prediction that is at odds with what is achievable. Following others, it recommends that it is better…

Retirement incentives are frequently used by school districts facing financial difficulties. They provide a means of either decreasing staff size or replacing retiring senior teachers with less expensive junior teachers. We analyze a one-time retirement incentive in a large school district paid to teachers willing to retire at the end of the…

Sociologists increasingly face choices among competing algorithms that represent reasonable approaches to the same task, with little guidance in choosing among them. We develop a strategy that uses simulated data to identify the conditions under which different methods perform well and applies what is learned from the simulations to predict which…

Wildfires pose significant environmental threats in Australia, impacting ecosystems, human lives, and property. This review article provides a comprehensive analysis of various empirical and dynamic wildfire simulators alongside machine learning (ML) techniques employed for wildfire prediction in Australia. The study examines the effectiveness of…

Compared with the application of Digital Twin (DT) in the industrial field, the application of DT in the field of education is still in its infancy. In this paper, a Digital Twin Campus (DTC) for teaching and learning is proposed. It is argued that DTC possesses two characteristics. First, DTC has a wide variety of employment orientations for…

Generalized structured component analysis (GSCA) is a multivariate method for specifying and examining interrelationships between observed variables and components. Despite its data-analytic flexibility honed over the decade, GSCA always defines every component as a linear function of observed variables, which can be less optimal when observed…

The general feeling is that no predictions can be made based on agent-based social simulations. The outcomes of social simulations are based on the behaviors of individuals and their interactions. Behavioral models are always incomplete and often, also incorrect with respect to real behavior and thus the outcomes of agent-based social simulations…

Composite scores are an exceptionally important psychometric tool for behavioral science research applications. A prototypical example occurs with self-report data, where researchers routinely use questionnaires with multiple items that tap into different features of a target construct. Item-level missing data are endemic to composite score…

Agent-based models combine data and theory during both development and use of the model. As models have become increasingly data driven, it is easy to start thinking of agent-based modelling as an empirical method, akin to statistical modelling, and reduce the role of theory. We argue that both types of information are important where the past is…

In this article, a numerical method integrated with statistical data simulation technique is introduced to solve a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations with multiple random variable coefficients. The utilization of Monte Carlo simulation with central divided difference formula of finite difference (FD) method is repeated n times to…

Identifying the skills that determine the success or failure to exercises and question items is a difficult task. Multiple skills may be involved at various degree of importance, and skills may overlap and correlate. In an effort towards the goal of finding the skills behind a set of items, we investigate two techniques to determine the number of…

Most natural domains can be represented in multiple ways: we can categorize foods in terms of their nutritional content or social role, animals in terms of their taxonomic groupings or their ecological niches, and musical instruments in terms of their taxonomic categories or social uses. Previous approaches to modeling human categorization have…

Forces are experienced in actions on objects. The mechanoreceptor system is stimulated by proximal forces in interactions with objects, and experiences of force occur in a context of information yielded by other sensory modalities, principally vision. These experiences are registered and stored as episodic traces in the brain. These stored…

The focus of this paper is assessing the impact of measurement errors on the prediction error of an observed-score regression. Measures are presented and described for decomposing the linear regression's prediction error variance into parts attributable to the true score variance and the error variances of the dependent variable and the predictor…

The objective of the present article is to show that connectionist simulations can be used to model some of the socio-cognitive processes underlying the learning of the norm of internality. For our simulations, we developed a connectionist model which we called NetNorm (based on Dual-Network formalism). This model is capable of simulating the…