In this paper, we investigate two purported problems with Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT), a popular statistical model of student learning: "identifiability" and "semantic model degeneracy." In 2007, Beck and Chang stated that BKT is susceptible to an "identifiability problem"--various models with different…

We analyse the "two-dice horse race" task often used in lower secondary school, in which two ordinary dice are thrown repeatedly and each time the sum of the scores determines which horse (numbered 1 to 12) moves forwards one space.

Learning the structure of event sequences is a ubiquitous problem in cognition and particularly in language. One possible solution is to learn a probabilistic generative model of sequences that allows making predictions about upcoming events. Though appealing from a neurobiological standpoint, this approach is typically not pursued in…

This work describes a unified approach to two problems previously addressed separately in Intelligent Tutoring Systems: (i) Cognitive Modeling, which factorizes problem solving steps into the latent set of skills required to perform them; and (ii) Student Modeling, which infers students' learning by observing student performance. The practical…

In complex problem solving domains, correct solutions are often comprised of a combination of individual components. Students usually go through several attempts, each attempt reflecting an individual solution state that can be observed during practice. Classic metrics to measure student performance over time rely on counting the number of…

In addition to qualitative methods presented in chaos and complexity theories in educational research, this article addresses quantitative methods that may show potential for future research studies. Although much in the social and behavioral sciences literature has focused on computer simulations, this article explores current chaos and…

This article examines the problem of specification error in 2 models for categorical latent variables; the latent class model and the latent Markov model. Specification error in the latent class model focuses on the impact of incorrectly specifying the number of latent classes of the categorical latent variable on measures of model adequacy as…

Nowadays, Web based platforms are quite common in any university, supporting a very diversified set of applications and services. Ranging from personal management to student evaluation processes, Web based platforms are doing a great job providing a very flexible way of working, promote student enrolment, and making access to academic information…

As is the case for any statistical model, a multidimensional latent growth model comes with certain requirements with respect to the data collection design. In order to measure growth, repeated measurements of the same set of individuals are required. Furthermore, the data collection design should be specified such that no individual is given the…

In Volume 23(2) of the "Australian Senior Mathematics Journal," Boncek and Harden present an exercise in fitting a Markov chain model to rainfall data for Darwin Airport (Boncek & Harden, 2009). Days are subdivided into those with precipitation and precipitation-free days. The author abbreviates these labels to wet days and dry days.…

A. Redish et al. (2007) proposed a reinforcement learning model of context-dependent learning and extinction in conditioning experiments, using the idea of "state classification" to categorize new observations into states. In the current article, the authors propose an interpretation of this idea in terms of normative statistical inference. They…

Item families, which are groups of related items, are becoming increasingly popular in complex educational assessments. For example, in automatic item generation (AIG) systems, a test may consist of multiple items generated from each of a number of item models. Item calibration or scoring for such an assessment requires fitting models that can…

How to measure growth in knowledge and ability over time in curriculum research is explored. Two broad classes of probabilistic models are considered, the Rasch model and latent class models with their associated generalizations. Potential of both classes for measuring categorical change is discussed. (SLD)

The challenges of modeling students' performance in simulation-based assessments include accounting for multiple aspects of knowledge and skill that arise in different situations and the conditional dependencies among multiple aspects of performance in a complex assessment. This paper describes a Bayesian approach to modeling and estimating…

This paper provides a method for analyzing data consisting of event sequences and covariate observations associated with Markov chains. The objective is to use the covariate data to explain differences between individuals in the transition probability matrices characterizing their sequential data. (TJH)