Empirical research has shown that when making choices based on probabilistic options, people behave as if they overestimate small probabilities, underestimate large probabilities, and treat positive and negative outcomes differently. These distortions have been modeled using a nonlinear probability weighting function, which is found in several…

Transitivity of preferences is a fundamental principle shared by most major contemporary rational, prescriptive, and descriptive models of decision making. To have transitive preferences, a person, group, or society that prefers choice option "x" to "y" and "y" to "z" must prefer "x" to…

In this article, a Bayesian model selection approach is introduced that can select the best of a set of inequality and equality constrained hypotheses for contingency tables. The hypotheses are presented in terms of cell probabilities allowing researchers to test (in)equality constrained hypotheses in a format that is directly related to the data.…

Administrative skill is essential to organizational effectiveness. Yet, few studies examine how human capital investments over a career affect selection into administration. We use panel data for economists to estimate the probability of choosing administration over a pure academic track. The results show that, while research-specific human…

A model is proposed to account for publication bias explicitly using a weight function that describes probability of publication for a particular study in terms of a selection parameter. A Bayesian analysis of this model using Gibbs sampling is conducted, and the model is applied to a published meta-analysis. (SLD)

An evolved form of the Edwards and Beckworth (1989) model for probability selection for Scholastic Achievement Test takers using truncated normal distributions is presented. It is shown that the arguments of Holland and Wainer are not sufficient to reject this model. (SLD)