The Fisher Exact Probability Test considers independent groups and dichotomous criterion in a 2 by 2 (fourfold) contingency table. Fisher's test requires a determination of the combined probability of the observed frequency distribution and of the more extreme (in the same direction) frequency distributions. Typically, Fisher's test is for a small…

Through Monte Carlo procedures, three different techniques for estimating the parameter theta (proportion of the "shocks" remaining in the system) in the Integrated Moving Average (0,1,1) time-series model are compared in terms of (1) the accuracy of the estimates, (2) the independence of the estimates from the true value of theta, and…

Decisions to terminate training for subjects involved with discrete trial experiments in discrimination learning should utilize a probability criterion rather than a deterministic criterion. Furthermore, these decisions should be based upon the number of correct and error responses made by the subject, with the decision made to terminate training…

Procedures for computing content validity and consistency reliability coefficients and determining the statistical significance of these coefficients are described. Procedures employing the multinomial probability distribution for small samples and normal curve probability estimates for large samples, can be used where judgments are made on…

This paper will discuss the results of a series of computer simulations comparing the Rasch logistic model to a series of models departing to various degrees from its assumption of equal discrimination power for all items. The results have implications for test construction and test scoring, indicating how closely the conventional raw score…

Procedures are presented for equating simultaneously several tests which have been calibrated by the Rasch Model. Three multiple test equating designs are described. A Full Matrix Design equates each test to all others. A Chain Design links tests sequentially. A Vector Design equates one test to each of the other tests. For each design, the Rasch…

Item characteristic curve (ICC) theory describes the relationship between the ability of individuals and the probability of their answering a test question correctly; it is useful in estimating test scores, equating the scores of various tests, and scoring responses during adaptive testing. A simulation study of the effectiveness of the following…

A computer simulation of Bayes' Theorem was conducted in order to determine the probability that an examinee was a master conditional upon his test score. The inputs were: number of mastery states assumed, test length, prior expectation of masters in the examinee population, and conditional probability of a master getting a randomly selected test…

The reliability and validity of a tailored testing procedure based on the simple logistic model was determined for an achievement test in statistics and measurement. The test was administered on a CRT terminal to students from graduate and undergraduate measurement courses. Equivalent form reliability over a one-week interval was found to be 0.595…

This project is concerned with the development and implementation of some new statistical techniques that will facilitate a continuing input of information about the student to the instructional manager so that individualization of instruction can be managed effectively. The source of this informational input is typically a short…

A student's choice of an answer to a test question is a coarse measure of his knowledge about the subject matter of the question. Much finer measurement might be achieved if the student were asked to estimate, for each possible answer, the probability that it is the correct one. Such a procedure could yield two classes of benefits: (a) students…

Latent trait theory supposes that, in testing situations, examinee performance on a test can be predicted (or explained) by defining examinee characteristics, referred to as traits, estimating scores for examinees on these traits and using the scores to predict or explain test performance (Lord and Novick, 1968). In view of the breakthroughs in…