A design experiment where students in Grade 5 (11-12 years old) play the Color Run game constitutes the context for investigating how students can be introduced to informal hypothesis testing. The result outlines a three-step hypothetical learning trajectory on informal hypothesis testing. In the first step, students came to favor sample space…

A modified and improved inductive inferential approach to evaluate item discriminations in a conditional maximum likelihood and Rasch modeling framework is suggested. The new approach involves the derivation of four hypothesis tests. It implies a linear restriction of the assumed set of probability distributions in the classical approach that…

This article reports on a study in which third-grade students (8-9 years) were given a degree of agency in conducting chance experiments and representing the outcomes. Students chose their own samples of 12 coloured counters, ensuring all colours were represented. They predicted the outcomes of item selection, tested their predictions, explained…

In late November 2020, there was a flurry of media coverage of two companies' claims of 95% efficacy rates of newly developed COVID-19 vaccines, but information about the confidence interval was not reported. This paper presents a way of teaching the concept of hypothesis testing and the construction of confidence intervals using numbers announced…

An essential feature of episodic memory is the ability to recall the multiple elements relating to one event from the multitude of elements relating to other, potentially similar events. Hippocampal pattern separation is thought to play a fundamental role in this process, by orthogonalizing the representations of overlapping events during…

It is now widely accepted that the standard inferential toolkit used by the scientific research community--null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST)--is not fit for purpose. Yet despite the threat posed to the scientific enterprise, there is no agreement concerning alternative approaches for evidence assessment. This lack of consensus reflects…

When a psychologist announces a new research finding, it is often based on a rejected null hypothesis. However, if that hypothesis is true, the claim is a false alarm. Many students mistakenly believe that the probability of committing a false alarm equals alpha, the criterion for statistical significance, which is typically set at 5%. Instructors…

Here, we present a strong test of the hypothesis that sacrificial moral dilemmas are solved using the same value-based decision mechanism that operates on decisions concerning economic goods. To test this hypothesis, we developed Psychological Value Theory. Psychological Value Theory is an expansion and generalization of Cohen and Ahn's (2016)…

Purpose: This article focuses on toddlers' revisions of the sentence subject and tests the hypothesis that subject diversity (i.e., the number of different subjects produced) increases the probability of subject revision. Method: One-hour language samples were collected from 61 children (32 girls) at 27 months. Spontaneously produced, active…

There is a wealth of evidence that people's reasoning is influenced by explanatory considerations. Little is known, however, about the exact form this influence takes, for instance about whether the influence is unsystematic or because of people's following some rule. Three experiments investigate the descriptive adequacy of a precise proposal to…

This study examines informal hypothesis testing in the context of drawing inferences of underlying probability distributions. Through a small-scale teaching experiment of three lessons, the study explores how fifth-grade students distinguish a non-uniform probability distribution from uniform probability distributions in a data-rich learning…

While interest in Bayesian statistics has been growing in statistics education, the treatment of the topic is still inadequate in both textbooks and the classroom. Because so many fields of study lead to careers that involve a decision-making process requiring an understanding of Bayesian methods, it is becoming increasingly clear that Bayesian…

A central aim of physics education research is to understand the processes of learning and use that understanding to inform instruction. To this end, researchers often conduct studies to measure the effect of classroom interventions on student outcomes. Many of these intervention studies have provided an empirical foundation of reformed teaching…

Using a panel data set of scientists in the US, we examine the hypothesis that workers in jobs poorly matched to their education are more likely to retire. In pooled estimates, we confirm that the mismatched are more likely to retire and that among retirees, the mismatched retire at younger ages. Hazard function estimates also support the…

It is well known that students of inferential statistics find the hypothetical, probabilistic reasoning used in hypothesis tests difficult to understand. Consequently, they will also have difficulties in understanding "p"-values. It is not unusual for these students to hold misconceptions about "p"-values that are difficult to…