This study evaluated the forecasting accuracy of trend estimation methods applied to time-series data from computer adaptive tests (CATs). Data were collected roughly once a month over the course of a school year. We evaluated the forecasting accuracy of two regression-based growth estimation methods (ordinary least squares and Theil-Sen). The…

A difficult result to interpret in Computerized Adaptive Tests (CATs) occurs when an ability estimate initially drops and then ascends continuously until the test ends, suggesting that the true ability may be higher than implied by the final estimate. This study explains why this asymmetry occurs and shows that early mistakes by high-ability…

Using simulated item response data, the performance of several "robust" and conventional schemes for ability estimation was evaluated in conjunction with logistic item response theory models (one, two, and three parameter models). The simulated item response data were generated using a model that is more complex than are the usual…

The predictive analysis approach to adaptive testing originated in the idea of statistical predictive analysis suggested by J. Aitchison and I.R. Dunsmore (1975). The adaptive testing model proposed is based on parameter-free predictive distribution. Aitchison and Dunsmore define statistical prediction analysis as the use of data obtained from an…

The relationship between selected subtests from the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) and corresponding subtests administered as computerized adaptive tests (CAT) was investigated using a sample of Marine recruits. Results showed that the CAT subtest scores correlated as well with initial ASVAB scores as did ASVAB retest scores,…

A nominal response model-based computerized adaptive testing procedure (nominal CAT) was implemented using simulated data. Ability estimates from the nominal CAT were compared to those from a CAT based upon the three-parameter logistic model (3PL CAT). Furthermore, estimates from both CAT procedures were compared with the known true abilities used…

Hierarchical (adaptive) and linear methods of testlet construction were compared. The performance of 2,080 ninth and tenth graders on a 4-item testlet was used to predict performance on the entire test. The adaptive test was slightly superior as a predictor, but the cost of obtaining that superiority was considerable. (SLD)