A linear model is often used to find the effect of a binary treatment D on a noncontinuous outcome Y with covariates X. Particularly, a binary Y gives the popular "linear probability model (LPM)," but the linear model is untenable if X contains a continuous regressor. This raises the question: what kind of treatment effect does the…

The latent growth model (LGM) is a popular tool in the social and behavioral sciences to study development processes of continuous and discrete outcome variables. A special case are frequency measurements of behaviors or events, such as doctor visits per month or crimes committed per year. Probability distributions for such outcomes include the…

Longitudinal data structures are frequently encountered in a variety of disciplines in the social and behavioral sciences. Growth curve modeling offers a highly extensible framework that allows for the exploration of rich hypotheses. However, owing to the presence of interrelated sources of potential data-model misfit at multiple levels, the…

To expand the use of cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) to longitudinal assessments, this study proposes a bias-corrected three-step estimation approach for latent transition CDMs with covariates by integrating a general CDM and a latent transition model. The proposed method can be used to assess changes in attribute mastery status and attribute…

In the present study, we used a modeling approach for measuring task conflict in task switching, assessing the probability of selecting the correct task via multinomial processing tree (MPT) modeling. With this method, task conflict and response conflict can be independently assessed as the probability of selecting the correct task and the…

As evidence from evaluation and experimental studies continue to influence decision and policymaking, applied researchers and practitioners require tools to derive valid and credible inferences. Over the past several decades, research in causal inference has progressed with the development and application of propensity scores. Since their…

When scores are used to make decisions about respondents, it is of interest to estimate classification accuracy (CA), the probability of making a correct decision, and classification consistency (CC), the probability of making the same decision across two parallel administrations of the measure. Model-based estimates of CA and CC computed from the…

Traditional approaches to the modeling of multiple-choice item response data (e.g., 3PL, 4PL models) emphasize slips and guesses as random events. In this paper, an item response model is presented that characterizes both disjunctively interacting guessing and conjunctively interacting slipping processes as proficiency-related phenomena. We show…

In meta-analyses of rare events, it can be challenging to obtain a reliable estimate of the pooled effect, in particular when the meta-analysis is based on a small number of studies. Recent simulation studies have shown that the beta-binomial model is a promising candidate in this situation, but have thus far only investigated its performance in a…

The causal view of categories assumes that categories are represented by features and their causal relations. To study the effect of causal knowledge on categorization, researchers have used Bayesian causal models. Within that framework, categorization may be viewed as dependent on a likelihood computation (i.e., the likelihood of an exemplar with…

Extreme response style (ERS), the tendency of participants to select extreme item categories regardless of the item content, has frequently been found to decrease the validity of Likert-type questionnaire results. For this reason, various item response theory (IRT) models have been proposed to model ERS and correct for it. Comparisons of these…

Background: Clustered randomized controlled trials are commonly used to evaluate the effectiveness of treatments. Frequently, stratified or paired designs are adopted in practice. Fogarty (2018) studied variance estimators for stratified and not clustered experiments and Schochet et. al. (2022) studied that for stratified, clustered RCTs with…

Coordination of theoretical probability and relative frequency estimates is challenging in probability teaching and learning. Modeling is one of the ways of teaching and learning that facilitates inquiry between these two perspectives. Given that, we designed a modeling activity to support fifteen secondary students in investigating theoretical…

The extraction of cooccurrences between two events, A and B, is a central learning mechanism shared by all species capable of associative learning. Formally, the cooccurrence of events A and B appearing in a sequence is measured by the transitional probability (TP) between these events, and it corresponds to the probability of the second stimulus…

The objective of this paper is the design of a predictive model of students' desertion in Educational Institutions based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The proposed model is based on a weighted sum of individual probabilities of desertion associated with various factors (explanatory variables) by experts in the combined use of the AHP…