The clustered observational study (COS) design is the observational study counterpart to the clustered randomized trial. In a COS, a treatment is assigned to intact groups, and all units within the group are exposed to the treatment. However, the treatment is non-randomly assigned. COSs are common in both education and health services research. In…

Structural equation modeling (SEM) is a statistical method widely used in educational research to investigate relationships between variables. SEM models are typically constructed based on theoretical foundations and assessed through fit indices. However, a well-fitting SEM model alone is not sufficient to verify the causal inferences underlying…

This article uses the interventionist theory of causation, a counterfactual theory taken from philosophy of science, to strengthen causal analysis in process tracing research. Causal claims from process tracing are re-expressed in terms of so-called hypothetical interventions, and concrete evidential tests are proposed which are shown to…

Parallel process latent growth curve mediation models (PP-LGCMMs) are frequently used to longitudinally investigate the mediation effects of treatment on the level and change of outcome through the level and change of mediator. An important but often violated assumption in empirical PP-LGCMM analysis is the absence of omitted confounders of the…

Parallel process latent growth curve mediation models (PP-LGCMMs) are frequently used to longitudinally investigate the mediation effects of treatment on the level and change of outcome through the level and change of mediator. An important but often violated assumption in empirical PP-LGCMM analysis is the absence of omitted confounders of the…

As evidence from evaluation and experimental studies continue to influence decision and policymaking, applied researchers and practitioners require tools to derive valid and credible inferences. Over the past several decades, research in causal inference has progressed with the development and application of propensity scores. Since their…

This article introduces a collection of four datasets, similar to Anscombe's quartet, that aim to highlight the challenges involved when estimating causal effects. Each of the four datasets is generated based on a distinct causal mechanism: the first involves a collider, the second involves a confounder, the third involves a mediator, and the…

We provide a novel characterization of augmented balancing weights, also known as automatic debiased machine learning (AutoDML). These popular "doubly robust" or "de-biased machine learning estimators" combine outcome modeling with balancing weights -- weights that achieve covariate balance directly in lieu of estimating and…

Background: Clustered randomized controlled trials are commonly used to evaluate the effectiveness of treatments. Frequently, stratified or paired designs are adopted in practice. Fogarty (2018) studied variance estimators for stratified and not clustered experiments and Schochet et. al. (2022) studied that for stratified, clustered RCTs with…

Background: The emergence of causal research in education was almost strictly quantitative twenty years ago, however, that landscape has changed considerably. The number of intervention studies fielded and completed annually has increased substantially, and the quality of the evaluations is much more robust, including paying much greater attention…

In causal mediation studies that decompose an average treatment effect into indirect and direct effects, examples of post-treatment confounding are abundant. In the presence of treatment-by-mediator interactions, past research has generally considered it infeasible to adjust for a post-treatment confounder of the mediator-outcome relationship due…

Accounting for model misspecification in Bayesian structural equation models is an active area of research. We present a uniquely Bayesian approach to misspecification that models the degree of misspecification as a parameter--a parameter akin to the correlation root mean squared residual. The misspecification parameter can be interpreted on its…

This report characterizes forms of dialogic support that a sixth-grade teacher generated during whole-class and small-group conversations to help students develop a practice of statistical modeling. During four weeks of instruction, students constructed and revised models to account for variability and uncertainty across a variety of random…

Dynamic structural equation modeling (DSEM) is a useful technique for analyzing intensive longitudinal data. A challenge of applying DSEM is the missing data problem. The impact of missing data on DSEM, especially on widely applied DSEM such as the two-level vector autoregressive (VAR) cross-lagged models, however, is understudied. To fill the…

Combining observational and experimental data for causal inference can improve treatment effect estimation. However, many observational data sets cannot be released due to data privacy considerations, so one researcher may not have access to both experimental and observational data. Nonetheless, a small amount of risk of disclosing sensitive…