Recent methods have sought to improve precision in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) by utilizing data from large observational datasets for covariate adjustment. For example, consider an RCT aimed at evaluating a new algebra curriculum, in which a few dozen schools are randomly assigned to treatment (new curriculum) or control (standard…

With large student enrollment, MOOC instructors face the unique challenge in deciding when to intervene in forum discussions with their limited bandwidth. We study this problem of "instructor intervention." Using a large sample of forum data culled from 61 courses, we design a binary classifier to predict whether an instructor should…

Student models for adaptive systems may not model collaborative learning optimally. Past research has either focused on modeling individual learning or for collaboration, has focused on group dynamics or group processes without predicting learning. In the current paper, we adjust the Additive Factors Model (AFM), a standard logistic regression…

Student models for adaptive systems may not model collaborative learning optimally. Past research has either focused on modeling individual learning or for collaboration, has focused on group dynamics or group processes without predicting learning. In the current paper, we adjust the Additive Factors Model (AFM), a standard logistic regression…

This study was designed to investigate the factors that affect master's student persistence in the United States. More specifically, this study explored whether the following factors: students' background, institution's, academic, environmental and psychological influences, had a significant effect on whether a master's student persisted and/or…

Building on Shulruf, Hattie and Tumen (2008), this work examines the capacity of various National Certificate in Educational Achievement (NCEA)-derived models to predict first-year performance in Biological Sciences at a New Zealand university. We compared three models: (1) the "best-80" indicator as used by several New Zealand…

The Texas Projection Measure (TPM) has grown out of the state's need to meet the requirements of No Child Left Behind (NCLB). An examination of the state's method of predicting 8th grade mathematics scores reveals that several factors have been ignored in the process of developing the model, including assumptions in its underlying statistical…

Some of the conceptual and methodological problems in identifying and measuring creativity in young children are presented. Among the issues raised are: (1) the prediction of validity of creativity tests, (2) the problem of predicting adult creativity from evidence of childhood creativity, and (3) the need to identify and adequately measure the…

The important and sometimes difficult-to-grasp concept of regression suppressor variable effects is explored. An inquiry into the phenomenon of suppressor effects is accomplished via a synthesis of the existing literature and the use of a small heuristic data set to improve the accessibility of the concept. Implications for researchers are also…

Researchers sometimes use stepwise methods to eliminate variables from analyses when the variables do not appreciably improve the ability to explain or predict inferences about the importance of various predictor variables. It is argued that stepwise methods are usually not appropriate for these purposes for three reasons. First, some researchers…

This paper examines some of the problems that arise when conducting multivariate analyses with incomplete data. The literature on the effectiveness of several missing data procedures (MDP) is summarized. The most widely used MDPs are: (1) listwise deletion; (2) pairwise deletion; (3) variable mean; (4) correlational methods. No MDP should be used…

The uses and restrictions of commonality analysis are described. Commonality analysis has been increasingly used as a method to examine the relative importance of independent variables, through the partitioning of variance among the variables of the regression equation into unique and common components. The effects of all other independent…

To find predictive relations between measures taken in infancy and later scores on intelligence tests, a study was made that measured in the infant those cognitive processes examined later in life. Operant conditioning tasks were employed which required 3-, 7-, and 11-month-old infants to execute some response to produce an environmental…

The common approach to studies of predictive bias is analyzed within the context of a conceptual model in which predictors and criterion measures are viewed as fallible indicators of idealized qualifications. (Author/PN)

This paper describes a procedure for smoothing the proportions of a double-entry expectancy table which might be used in higher education admissions advising or other functions. The product of the smoothing procedure is a nomograph, a medium for displaying expectancies which provides pairs of individual values for two predictor variables rather…