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Teigen, Karl Halvor; Juanchich, Marie; Riege, Anine H. – Cognition, 2013
Research on verbal probabilities has shown that "unlikely" or "improbable" events are believed to correspond to numerical probability values between 10% and 30%. However, building on a pragmatic approach of verbal probabilities and a new methodology, the present paper shows that unlikely outcomes are most often associated with outcomes that have a…
Descriptors: Probability, Expertise, Computation, Causal Models