Bayesian orthodoxy posits a tight relationship between conditional probability and updating. Namely, the probability of an event "A" after learning "B" should equal the conditional probability of "A" given "B" prior to learning "B". We examine whether ordinary judgment conforms to the orthodox view. In three experiments we found substantial…

Young children are able to judge which of two possibilities is more likely to occur when these possibilities are characterized by a simple property, like color ("Is it more likely to draw a red chip or a blue chip?"). Here we ask whether they can do so when the possibilities concern a relation between simple properties ("Is it more likely to draw…