People's reactions to coincidences are often cited as an illustration of the irrationality of human reasoning about chance. We argue that coincidences may be better understood in terms of rational statistical inference, based on their functional role in processes of causal discovery and theory revision. We present a formal definition of…

Knowledge concerning domain-specific regularities in sequential structure has long been known to affect recall for serial order. However, very little work has been done toward specifying the exact role such knowledge plays. The present article proposes a theory of serial recall in structured domains, based on Bayesian decision theory and a set of…