People tend to think that streaks in random sequential events are rare and remarkable. When they actually encounter streaks, they tend to consider the underlying process as non-random. The present paper examines the time of pattern occurrences in sequences of Bernoulli trials, and shows that among all patterns of the same length, a streak is the…

Gain analysis is applied to the invention of the sewing needle as well as different sewing implements and modes of sewing. The analysis includes a two-subject experiment. To validate the generality of gain heuristics and underlying switching processes, the invention of the assembly line is also analyzed. (TJH)

Examines tasks from the heuristics and biases literature in light of the understanding/acceptance principle of P. Slovic and A. Tversky (1974). Shows how the variation and instability of responses can be analyzed to yield inferences about why descriptive and normative models of human reasoning and decision making sometimes do not coincide.…

Proposes a probability heuristic model for syllogistic reasoning and confirms the rationality of this heuristic by an analysis of the probabilistic validity of syllogistic reasoning that treats logical inference as a limiting case of probabilistic inference. Meta-analysis and two experiments involving 40 adult participants and using generalized…

Gigerenzer (2000) and Anderson (1990) analyzed reasoning by asking: what are the reasoner's goals? This emphasizes the adaptiveness of behavior rather than whether a belief is normative. Belief in the ''hot hand'' in basketball suggests that players experiencing streaks should be given more shots, but this has been seen as a fallacy due to…