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Kemp, Charles; Shafto, Patrick; Tenenbaum, Joshua B. – Cognitive Psychology, 2012
Humans routinely make inductive generalizations about unobserved features of objects. Previous accounts of inductive reasoning often focus on inferences about a single object or feature: accounts of causal reasoning often focus on a single object with one or more unobserved features, and accounts of property induction often focus on a single…
Descriptors: Generalization, Logical Thinking, Inferences, Probability
Over, David E.; Hadjichristidis, Constantinos; Evans, Jonathan St. B. T.; Handley, Simon J.; Sloman, Steven A. – Cognitive Psychology, 2007
Conditionals in natural language are central to reasoning and decision making. A theoretical proposal called the Ramsey test implies the conditional probability hypothesis: that the subjective probability of a natural language conditional, P(if p then q), is the conditional subjective probability, P(q [such that] p). We report three experiments on…
Descriptors: Probability, Decision Making, Predictor Variables, Hypothesis Testing
Griffiths, Thomas L.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B. – Cognitive Psychology, 2005
We present a framework for the rational analysis of elemental causal induction--learning about the existence of a relationship between a single cause and effect--based upon causal graphical models. This framework makes precise the distinction between causal structure and causal strength: the difference between asking whether a causal relationship…
Descriptors: Probability, Logical Thinking, Inferences, Causal Models