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Bonnefon, Jean-Francois; Sloman, Steven A. – Cognitive Science, 2013
The psychology of reasoning is increasingly considering agents' values and preferences, achieving greater integration with judgment and decision making, social cognition, and moral reasoning. Some of this research investigates utility conditionals, ‘"if 'p' then 'q'’" statements where the realization of "p" or "q" or…
Descriptors: Logical Thinking, Inferences, Influences, Probability
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Bes, Benedicte; Sloman, Steven; Lucas, Christopher G.; Raufaste, Eric – Cognitive Science, 2012
The study tests the hypothesis that conditional probability judgments can be influenced by causal links between the target event and the evidence even when the statistical relations among variables are held constant. Three experiments varied the causal structure relating three variables and found that (a) the target event was perceived as more…
Descriptors: Statistical Inference, Probability, Correlation, Causal Models
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Hawkins, Guy; Brown, Scott D.; Steyvers, Mark; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan – Cognitive Science, 2012
For decisions between many alternatives, the benchmark result is Hick's Law: that response time increases log-linearly with the number of choice alternatives. Even when Hick's Law is observed for response times, divergent results have been observed for error rates--sometimes error rates increase with the number of choice alternatives, and…
Descriptors: Bayesian Statistics, Reaction Time, Context Effect, Decision Making