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McAnally, Ken; Davey, Catherine; White, Daniel; Stimson, Murray; Mascaro, Steven; Korb, Kevin – Cognitive Science, 2018
Situation awareness is a key construct in human factors and arises from a process of situation assessment (SA). SA comprises the perception of information, its integration with existing knowledge, the search for new information, and the prediction of the future state of the world, including the consequences of planned actions. Causal models…
Descriptors: Bayesian Statistics, Models, Air Transportation, Flight Training
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Griffiths, Thomas L.; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Kalish, Michael L. – Cognitive Science, 2013
Information changes as it is passed from person to person, with this process of cultural transmission allowing the minds of individuals to shape the information that they transmit. We present mathematical models of cultural transmission which predict that the amount of information passed from person to person should affect the rate at which that…
Descriptors: Culture, Information Dissemination, Mathematical Models, Prediction
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Bes, Benedicte; Sloman, Steven; Lucas, Christopher G.; Raufaste, Eric – Cognitive Science, 2012
The study tests the hypothesis that conditional probability judgments can be influenced by causal links between the target event and the evidence even when the statistical relations among variables are held constant. Three experiments varied the causal structure relating three variables and found that (a) the target event was perceived as more…
Descriptors: Statistical Inference, Probability, Correlation, Causal Models
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Hawkins, Guy; Brown, Scott D.; Steyvers, Mark; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan – Cognitive Science, 2012
For decisions between many alternatives, the benchmark result is Hick's Law: that response time increases log-linearly with the number of choice alternatives. Even when Hick's Law is observed for response times, divergent results have been observed for error rates--sometimes error rates increase with the number of choice alternatives, and…
Descriptors: Bayesian Statistics, Reaction Time, Context Effect, Decision Making