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Direct linkYongyun Shin; Stephen W. Raudenbush – Grantee Submission, 2023
We consider two-level models where a continuous response R and continuous covariates C are assumed missing at random. Inferences based on maximum likelihood or Bayes are routinely made by estimating their joint normal distribution from observed data R[subscript obs] and C[subscript obs]. However, if the model for R given C includes random…
Descriptors: Maximum Likelihood Statistics, Hierarchical Linear Modeling, Error of Measurement, Statistical Distributions
Heidemanns, Merlin; Gelman, Andrew; Morris, G. Elliott – Grantee Submission, 2020
During modern general election cycles, information to forecast the electoral outcome is plentiful. So-called fundamentals like economic growth provide information early in the cycle. Trial-heat polls become informative closer to Election Day. Our model builds on (Linzer, 2013) and is implemented in Stan (Team, 2020). We improve on the estimation…
Descriptors: Evaluation, Bayesian Statistics, Elections, Presidents
