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Direct linkEbert, Philip A. – Journal of Adventure Education and Outdoor Learning, 2019
In this article, I explore a Bayesian approach to avalanche decision-making. I motivate this perspective by highlighting a version of the base-rate fallacy and show that a similar pattern applies to decision-making in avalanche-terrain. I then draw out three theoretical lessons from adopting a Bayesian approach and discuss these lessons…
Descriptors: Bayesian Statistics, Decision Making, Outdoor Education, Natural Disasters
