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Henry Markovits; Valerie A. Thompson – Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2023
Mental model (Johnson-Laird, 2001) and probabilistic theories (Oaksford & Chater, 2009) claim to provide distinct explanations of human reasoning. However, the dual strategy model of reasoning suggests that this distinction corresponds to different reasoning strategies, termed "counterexample" and "statistical,"…
Descriptors: Abstract Reasoning, Thinking Skills, Learning Strategies, Logical Thinking
Byrne, Ruth M. J.; Johnson-Laird, P. N. – Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2020
The theory of mental models postulates that conditionals and disjunctions refer to possibilities, real or counterfactual. Factual conditionals, for example, "If there's an apple, there's a pear," parallel counterfactual ones, for example, "If there had been an apple, there would have been a pear." A similar parallel underlies…
Descriptors: Ethics, Probability, Schemata (Cognition), Logical Thinking
Hinterecker, Thomas; Knauff, Markus; Johnson-Laird, P. N. – Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2019
Individuals draw conclusions about possibilities from assertions that make no explicit reference to them. The model theory postulates that assertions such as disjunctions refer to possibilities. Hence, a disjunction of the sort, "A or B or both," where "A" and "B" are sensible clauses, yields mental models of an…
Descriptors: Logical Thinking, Abstract Reasoning, Inferences, Probability
Oaksford, Mike; Over, David; Cruz, Nicole – Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2019
Hinterecker, Knauff, and Johnson-Laird (2016) compared the adequacy of the probabilistic new paradigm in reasoning with the recent revision of mental models theory (MMT) for explaining a novel class of inferences containing the modal term "possibly." For example, "the door is closed or the window is open or both," therefore,…
Descriptors: Models, Probability, Inferences, Logical Thinking
Douven, Igor; Mirabile, Patricia – Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2018
There is a wealth of evidence that people's reasoning is influenced by explanatory considerations. Little is known, however, about the exact form this influence takes, for instance about whether the influence is unsystematic or because of people's following some rule. Three experiments investigate the descriptive adequacy of a precise proposal to…
Descriptors: Probability, Bayesian Statistics, Hypothesis Testing, Thinking Skills
Fernandes, Eunice G.; Luegi, Paula; Correa Soares, Eduardo; de la Fuente, Israel; Hemforth, Barbara – Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2018
Previous research accounting for pronoun resolution as a problem of probabilistic inference has not explored the phenomenon of adaptation, whereby the processor constantly tracks and adapts, rationally, to changes in a statistical environment. We investigate whether Brazilian (BP) and European Portuguese (EP) speakers adapt to variations in the…
Descriptors: Portuguese, Form Classes (Languages), Adjustment (to Environment), Probability
Meiser, Thorsten; Rummel, Jan; Fleig, Hanna – Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2018
Pseudocontingencies are inferences about correlations in the environment that are formed on the basis of statistical regularities like skewed base rates or varying base rates across environmental contexts. Previous research has demonstrated that pseudocontingencies provide a pervasive mechanism of inductive inference in numerous social judgment…
Descriptors: Inferences, Correlation, Decision Making, Probability
Newman, Ian R.; Gibb, Maia; Thompson, Valerie A. – Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2017
It is commonly assumed that belief-based reasoning is fast and automatic, whereas rule-based reasoning is slower and more effortful. Dual-Process theories of reasoning rely on this speed-asymmetry explanation to account for a number of reasoning phenomena, such as base-rate neglect and belief-bias. The goal of the current study was to test this…
Descriptors: Logical Thinking, Beliefs, Bias, Problem Solving
Cassey, Peter; Hawkins, Guy E.; Donkin, Chris; Brown, Scott D. – Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2016
Reasoning and inference are well-studied aspects of basic cognition that have been explained as statistically optimal Bayesian inference. Using a simplified experimental design, we conducted quantitative comparisons between Bayesian inference and human inference at the level of individuals. In 3 experiments, with more than 13,000 participants, we…
Descriptors: Experiments, Inferences, Bayesian Statistics, Probability
Hinterecker, Thomas; Knauff, Markus; Johnson-Laird, P. N. – Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2016
We report 3 experiments investigating novel sorts of inference, such as: A or B or both. Therefore, possibly (A and B). Where the contents were sensible assertions, for example, "Space tourism will achieve widespread popularity in the next 50 years or advances in material science will lead to the development of antigravity materials in the…
Descriptors: Models, Probability, Inferences, Logical Thinking
Rehder, Bob – Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2015
Two experiments tested how the "functional form" of the causal relations that link features of categories affects category-based inferences. Whereas "independent causes" can each bring about an effect by themselves, "conjunctive causes" all need to be present for an effect to occur. The causal model view of category…
Descriptors: Role, Classification, Causal Models, Inferences
Markovits, Henry; Brisson, Janie; de Chantal, Pier-Luc – Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2015
One of the major debates concerning the nature of inferential reasoning is between counterexample-based theories such as mental model theory and probabilistic theories. This study looks at conclusion updating after the addition of statistical information to examine the hypothesis that deductive reasoning cannot be explained by probabilistic…
Descriptors: Logical Thinking, Theories, Bayesian Statistics, Probability
Nosofsky, Robert M. – Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2015
In a highly systematic literature, researchers have investigated the manner in which people make feature inferences in paradigms involving uncertain categorizations (e.g., Griffiths, Hayes, & Newell, 2012; Murphy & Ross, 1994, 2007, 2010a). Although researchers have discussed the implications of the results for models of categorization and…
Descriptors: Models, Classification, Inferences, Cognitive Psychology
Oh, Hanna; Beck, Jeffrey M.; Zhu, Pingping; Sommer, Marc A.; Ferrari, Silvia; Egner, Tobias – Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2016
Much of our real-life decision making is bounded by uncertain information, limitations in cognitive resources, and a lack of time to allocate to the decision process. It is thought that humans overcome these limitations through "satisficing," fast but "good-enough" heuristic decision making that prioritizes some sources of…
Descriptors: Decision Making, Cues, Cognitive Processes, Time
Markovits, Henry; Brunet, Marie-Laurence; Thompson, Valerie; Brisson, Janie – Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2013
In 2 experiments, we tested a strong version of a dual process theory of conditional inference (cf. Verschueren et al., 2005a, 2005b) that assumes that most reasoners have 2 strategies available, the choice of which is determined by situational variables, cognitive capacity, and metacognitive control. The statistical strategy evaluates inferences…
Descriptors: Logical Thinking, Inferences, Probability, Metacognition
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