Descriptor
| Mathematical Formulas | 2 |
| Models | 2 |
| Obsolescence | 2 |
| Citation Analysis | 1 |
| Citations (References) | 1 |
| Futures (of Society) | 1 |
| Predictive Measurement | 1 |
| Probability | 1 |
Source
| Journal of the American… | 2 |
Author
| Burrell, Quentin L. | 2 |
Publication Type
| Journal Articles | 2 |
| Reports - Descriptive | 2 |
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Peer reviewedBurrell, Quentin L. – Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 2002
A recently proposed stochastic model to describe the citation process in the presence of obsolescence is used to answer the question: If a paper has not been cited by a certain time after its publication, what is the probability that it will ever be cited? A proof of the theorem is appended. (Author/LRW)
Descriptors: Citations (References), Mathematical Formulas, Models, Obsolescence
Peer reviewedBurrell, Quentin L. – Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 2003
Develops the theory for a stochastic model for the citation process in the presence of obsolescence to predict the future citation pattern of individual papers in a collection. Shows that the expected number of future citations is a linear function of the current number, interpreted as an example of a success-breeds-success phenomenon. (Author/LRW)
Descriptors: Citation Analysis, Futures (of Society), Mathematical Formulas, Models
