As demands on libraries continue to grow, outpacing budget increases, more librarians are forced to make difficult decisions about what materials and services stay and go. Charles R. McClure has written that many librarians use an "adhocracy" method to make these decisions, relying on no data or simple aggregates in determining a course of action.…

This essay illustrates a technique for reducing the risks of capital investment decisions involving considerable sums for advanced technologies by considering its application to a problem that arises frequently in selection of automated library systems. Incomplete information, using available information, selecting a system, and consultants are…