Foundations of statistics research aims to establish fundamental principles guiding inference about populations under uncertainty. It is concerned with the process of learning from observations, notions of uncertainty and induction, and satisfying inferential objectives. The growing interest in predictive methods in high-stakes fields like…

Recently, Bayesian diagnostic classification modeling has been becoming popular in health psychology, education, and sociology. Typically information criteria are used for model selection when researchers want to choose the best model among alternative models. In Bayesian estimation, posterior predictive checking is a flexible Bayesian model…

In this thesis, I use a combination of simulations and empirical data to demonstrate that a small set of structural and functional principles - the basic tenets of predictive coding theory - succinctly accounts for a very wide range of properties in the language processing system. Predictive coding approximates hierarchical Bayesian inference via…

In this dissertation I argue that truth-conditional semantics for vague predicates, combined with a Bayesian account of statistical inference incorporating knowledge of truth-conditions of utterances, generates false predictions regarding negations and metalinguistic inference. I thus propose a fundamentally probabilistic semantics for vagueness…

Evidence of student growth is a primary outcome of interest for educational accountability systems. When three or more years of student test data are available, questions around how students grow and what their predicted growth is can be answered. Given that test scores contain measurement error, this error should be considered in growth and…

Multilayer perceptron neural networks, Gaussian naive Bayes, and logistic regression classifiers were compared when used to make early predictions regarding one-year college student persistence. Two iterations of each model were built, utilizing a grid search process within 10-fold cross-validation in order to tune model parameters for optimal…

This dissertation investigates the effect of observational learning in crowdsourcing markets as a lens to identify appropriate mechanism(s) for sustaining this increasingly popular business model. Observational learning occurs when crowdsourcing participating agents obtain knowledge from signals they observe in the marketplace and incorporate such…

Personalization, the idea that teaching can be tailored to each students' needs, has been a goal for the educational enterprise for at least 2,500 years (Regian, Shute, & Shute, 2013, p.2). Recently personalization has picked up speed with the advent of mobile computing, the Internet and increases in computer processing power. These changes…

This simulation study compared the utility of various discrepancy measures within a posterior predictive model checking (PPMC) framework for detecting different types of data-model misfit in multidimensional Bayesian network (BN) models. The investigated conditions were motivated by an applied research program utilizing an operational complex…