The results of a replication study are described that tested the predictive validity of a 34-item instrument designed to assess the fundamental constructs of Tinto's model of college student attrition. Potential institutional differences in faculty members' influence on retention were identified. (Author/MLW)

The merits of double exponential smoothing are discussed relative to other types of pattern-based enrollment forecasting methods. The basic assumptions and formulas for its use are outlined. The difficulties associated with selecting an appropriate weight factor are discussed, and the potential effect on prediction results is illustrated.…

A new statistical model based for identifying potential major donors was developed from a portion (n=53,276) of the Northwestern University (Illinois) alumni database. The model, utilizing logit analysis, found that the most critical measure was individuals' past giving records. Results indicate prospects with a low past giving level will rarely…

The validity of Tinto's (1975) theory of student attrition, which asserts that withdrawal relates most directly to students' integration in the social and academic systems of an institution, is examined. This study supports that theory and also suggests that informal interaction with faculty plays an important role as well. (Editor/LBH)