In this paper, we use longitudinal data to examine the compensation effect when young students decide among different tertiary education options. We begin with an analysis of the transition to higher vocational training programmes or university degree programmes. For those choosing the university option, we then analyse the risk (high or low) of degree programme completion. Longitudinal data enables control variables from years before the decision is made, and variables affecting previous compensation processes, to be introduced into the logistic regression model. The results show that the compensation effect has a weak influence when deciding amongst enrolment options for tertiary education.