High dropout rate exists universally in massive open online courses (MOOCs) due to the separation of teachers and learners in space and time. Dropout prediction using the machine learning method is an extremely important prerequisite to identify potential at-risk learners to improve learning. It has attracted much attention and there have emerged…

A nonconverged Markov chain can potentially lead to invalid inferences about model parameters. The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of a nonconverged Markov chain on the estimation of parameters for mixture item response theory models using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. A simulation study was conducted to investigate the…

The present paper introduces a general multidimensional model to measure individual differences in learning within a single administration of a test. Learning is assumed to result from practicing the operations involved in solving the items. The model accounts for the possibility that the ability to learn may manifest differently for correct and…

Timely diagnostic feedback is helpful for students and teachers, enabling them to adjust their learning and teaching plans according to a current diagnosis. Motivated by the practical concern that the simultaneity estimation strategy currently adopted by longitudinal learning diagnosis models does not provide timely diagnostic feedback, this study…

This study compares the performance of two estimation algorithms of new usage, the Metropolis-Hastings Robins-Monro (MHRM) and the Hamiltonian MCMC (HMC), with two consolidated algorithms in the psychometric literature, the marginal likelihood via EM algorithm (MML-EM) and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), in the estimation of multidimensional…

Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) has been in wide use for modeling student skill acquisition in Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS). BKT tracks and updates student's latent mastery of a skill as a probability distribution of a binary variable. BKT does so by accounting for observed student successes in applying the skill correctly, where success is…

This paper presents the development of the fusion model skills diagnosis system (fusion model system), which can help integrate standardized testing into the learning process with both skills-level examinee parameters for modeling examinee skill mastery and skills-level item parameters, giving information about the diagnostic power of the test.…