Prediction algorithms are used across public policy domains to aid in the identification of at-risk individuals and guide service provision or resource allocation. While growing research has investigated concerns of algorithmic bias, much less research has compared algorithmically-driven targeting to the counterfactual: human prediction. We…

Background: The importance of high school completion for jobs and postsecondary opportunities is well- documented. Combined with federal laws where high school graduation rate is a core performance indicator, school systems and states face pressure to actively monitor and assess high school completion. This proposal employs machine learning…