Early warning systems (EWS) using analytical tools that have been trained against prior years' data, can reliably predict dropout risk in individual students so that educators may intervene early to help avert this from happening. Risk profiles for dropouts aren't always useful since students often do not conform to the profiles. Researchers with…

Purpose: The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the extent of dropout students and identify the relationship between risk factors of dropout and the survival time of students. Design/methodology/approach: The Kaplan-Meier estimator (KM), also known as the product-limit technique, is a nonparametric model function that is commonly used in…

We propose a novel approach to address the issue of college student attrition by developing a hybrid model that combines a structural neural network with a piecewise exponential model. This hybrid model not only shows the potential to robustly identify students who are at high risk of dropout, but also provides insights into which factors are most…

Globally, statistical analyses have found a range of variables that predict the odds of first-year students failing to progress at their Higher Education Institution (HEI). Some of these studies have included students from a range of disciplines. Yet despite the rise in the number of criminology students in HEIs in the UK, little statistical…

Background/Context: Early warning indicators (EWI) are often used by states and districts to identify students who are not on track to finish high school, and provide supports/interventions to increase the odds the student will graduate. While EWI are diverse in terms of the academic behaviors they capture, research suggests that indicators like…

A main goal of the university institution should be to reduce the desertion of its students, in fact, the dropout rate constitutes a basic indicator in the accreditation processes of university centers. Thus, evaluating the cognitive functions and learning skills of students with an increased risk of academic failure can be useful for the adoption…

The identification of predictor variables for students at-risk of dropping out of university has received increased attention in higher education settings internationally concerning the context of origin in which they are developed and the different academic context in which they are introduced, often lacking schema-theoretic perspectives to offer…

This paper combines a theoretical-based model with a data-driven approach to develop an Early Warning System that detects students who are more likely to dropout. The model uses innovative multilevel statistical and machine learning methods. The paper demonstrates the validity of the approach by applying it to administrative data from a leading…

The Connections Project (Pristawa,2014) is designed to assist school personnel in identifying students at-risk for social-emotional concerns by examining students' perceptions of connectedness with adults and peers in school. Currently used in several states, schools complete the screening measure as part of their use of the Multi-Tiered System of…

We present an educational data analytics case study aimed at the early detection of potential dropout in Computer Engineering studies in Cuba. We have employed institutional data of 456 students and performed several experiments for predicting their permanency into three (promotion, repetition, and dropout) or two classes (promoting, not…

This study examined graduation and persistence among social and behavioral science students at a regional comprehensive university. Hazard analyses identified predictors of student trajectories, times at which predictors were more or less impactful, and interactions between predictors such that particular risk factors were more detrimental for…

The purpose of this investigation was to develop an ultra-short questionnaire that reliably predicted re-enrollment. Two binary stepwise logistic regressions were performed using re-enrollment status as the criterion. The first regression, conducted with a subsample of 4619 undergraduates, reduced 32 items drawn from the College Persistence…

We perform two approaches of machine learning, logistic regressions and decision trees, to predict student dropout at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT). The models are computed on the basis of examination data, i.e. data available at all universities without the need of specific collection. Therefore, we propose a methodical approach…

Ninth grade is a critical juncture for students--and can be a jarring transition. Even students a strong track record in the middle grades can experience academic difficulty, and those who enter high school with poor course grades, weak attendance, or behavior problems are especially at risk. An early misstep can have lasting implications:…

Undergraduate student dropout is gradually becoming a global problem and the 39 Small Islands Developing States (SIDS) are no exception to this trend. The purpose of this research was to develop a method that can be used for early detection of students who are at-risk of performing poorly in their undergraduate studies. A sample of 279 students…