A new variant of the iterative "data = fit + residual" data-analytical approach described by Mosteller and Tukey is proposed and implemented in the context of item response theory psychometric models. Posterior probabilities from a Bayesian mixture model of a Rasch item response theory model and an unscalable latent class are expressed…

Paul E. Newton's "Clarifying the Consensus Definition of Validity" addresses the single most important, yet stubbornly protean, value in educational and psychological assessment. "Standards for Educational and Psychological Testing" (American Educational Research Association, American Psychological Association, & National Council on Measurement in…

A major issue in the study of learning progressions (LPs) is linking student performance on assessment tasks to the progressions. This report describes the challenges faced in making this linkage using Bayesian networks to model LPs in the field of computer networking. The ideas are illustrated with exemplar Bayesian networks built on Cisco…

In this paper we describe the development and refinement of "evidence rules" and "measurement models" within the "evidence model" of the "evidence-centered design" (ECD) framework in the context of the "Packet Tracer" digital learning environment of the "Cisco Networking Academy." Using…

Accommodations play a key role in enabling individuals with disabilities to participate in the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) and other large-scale assessments. However, it can be difficult to know how accommodations affect the validity of results, thus making it difficult to determine which accommodations should be allowed.…

This study investigated statistical methods for identifying errors in Bayesian networks (BN) with latent variables, as found in intelligent cognitive assessments. BN, commonly used in artificial intelligence systems, are promising mechanisms for scoring constructed-response examinations. The success of an intelligent assessment or tutoring system…

A framework is described for exploiting auxiliary information about test items within item response theory models to enhance parameter estimates. The method also provides diagnostic information about items' operating characteristics. An empirical Bayesian estimation of Rasch item difficulty is used to illustrate the principles involved. (TJH)

Advances in cognitive research increase the need for assessment that can address the processes and the strategies by which persons solve problems. Several psychometric models have been introduced to handle claims cast in information-processing terms, explicitly modeling performance in terms of theory-based predictions of performance. Cognitively…

An active area in psychometric research is coordinated task design and statistical analysis built around cognitive models. Compared with classical test theory and item response theory, there is often less information from observed data about the measurement-model parameters. On the other hand, there is more information from the grounding…

This paper aims to describe a Bayesian approach to modeling and estimating cognitive models both in terms of statistical machinery and actual instrument development. Such a method taps the knowledge of experts to provide initial estimates for the probabilistic relationships among the variables in a multivariate latent variable model and refines…

Probability-based inference in complex networks of interdependent variables is an active topic in statistical research, spurred by such diverse applications as forecasting, pedigree analysis, troubleshooting, and medical diagnosis. This paper concerns the role of Bayesian inference networks for updating student models in intelligent tutoring…

This article describes a Bayesian framework for estimation in item response models, with two-stage distributions on both item and examinee populations. Strategies for point and interval estimation are discussed, and a general procedure based on the EM algorithm is presented. (Author/LMO)

Marginal maximum likelihood estimation equations are derived for the structural parameters of the Saltus model, and a computing approximation is suggested based on the EM algorithm. The solution is illustrated with simulated data and an example from the domain of mixed number subtraction. (SLD)

Relationships between Bayesian ability estimates and the parameters of a normal population distribution are derived in the context of classical test theory. Analogies are provided for use as approximations in work with item response theory (IRT). The following issues are addressed: (1) the relationship between the distribution of the latent…

Recent developments in cognitive psychology suggest models for knowledge and learning that often fall outside the realm of standard test theory. This paper concerns probability-based inference in terms of such models. The essential idea is to define a space of "student models"--simplified characterizations of students' knowledge, skill,…