Bayesian methods to infer model dimensionality in factor analysis generally assume a lower triangular structure for the factor loadings matrix. Consequently, the ordering of the outcomes influences the results. Therefore, we propose a method to infer model dimensionality without imposing any prior restriction on the loadings matrix. Our approach…

The present work focuses on the performance of two types of shrinkage priors--the horseshoe prior and the recently developed regularized horseshoe prior--in the context of inducing sparsity in path analysis and growth curve models. Prior research has shown that these horseshoe priors induce sparsity by at least as much as the "gold…

Bayesian inference for structural equation models (SEMs) is increasingly popular in social and psychological sciences owing to its flexibility to adapt to more complex models and the ability to include prior information if available. However, there are two major hurdles in using the traditional Bayesian SEM in practice: (1) the information nested…

Although item response theory (IRT) models such as the bifactor, two-tier, and between-item-dimensionality IRT models have been devised to confirm complex dimensional structures in educational and psychological data, they can be challenging to use in practice. The reason is that these models are multidimensional IRT (MIRT) models and thus are…

Research questions regarding how, for whom, and where a treatment achieves its effect on an outcome have become increasingly valued in substantive research. Such questions can be answered by causal moderated mediation analysis, which assesses the heterogeneity of the mediation mechanism underlying the treatment effect across individual and…

Identifying patterns in the world requires noticing not only unusual occurrences, but also unusual absences. We examined how people learn from absences, manipulating the extent to which an absence is expected. People can make two types of inferences from the absence of an event: either the event is possible but has not yet occurred, or the event…

Single-case design is a repeated-measures research approach for the study of the effect of an intervention, and its importance is increasingly being recognized in education and psychology. We propose a Bayesian approach for estimating intervention effects in SCD. A Bayesian inference does not rely on large sample theories and thus is particularly…

Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has been the subject of debate for decades and alternative approaches to data analysis have been proposed. This article addresses this debate from the perspective of scientific inquiry and inference. Inference is an inverse problem and application of statistical methods cannot reveal whether effects…

In a seminal 1977 article, Rumelhart argued that perception required the simultaneous use of multiple sources of information, allowing perceivers to optimally interpret sensory information at many levels of representation in real time as information arrives. Building on Rumelhart's arguments, we present the Interactive Activation…

A reproducibility crisis afflicts a wide range of scientific and social-scientific disciplines, from epidemiology to social psychology. Improper research techniques, lack of accountability, disciplinary and political groupthink, and a scientific culture biased toward producing positive results together have produced a critical state of affairs.…

The scale-invariant memory, perception, and learning (SIMPLE) model developed by Brown, Neath, and Chater (2007) formalizes the theoretical idea that scale invariance is an important organizing principle across numerous cognitive domains and has made an influential contribution to the literature dealing with modeling human memory. In the context…

People have strong intuitions about the influence objects exert upon one another when they collide. Because people's judgments appear to deviate from Newtonian mechanics, psychologists have suggested that people depend on a variety of task-specific heuristics. This leaves open the question of how these heuristics could be chosen, and how to…

Many theories of human cognition postulate that people are equipped with a repertoire of strategies to solve the tasks they face. This theoretical framework of a cognitive toolbox provides a plausible account of intra- and interindividual differences in human behavior. Unfortunately, it is often unclear how to rigorously test the toolbox…

Propensity score analysis (PSA) has been used in a variety of settings, such as education, epidemiology, and sociology. Most typically, propensity score analysis has been implemented within the conventional frequentist perspective of statistics. This perspective, as is well known, does not account for uncertainty in either the parameters of the…

Predicting the future is a basic problem that people have to solve every day and a component of planning, decision making, memory, and causal reasoning. In this article, we present 5 experiments testing a Bayesian model of predicting the duration or extent of phenomena from their current state. This Bayesian model indicates how people should…