Experimental evidence suggests that the content of a memory for even a simple display encoded in visual short-term memory (VSTM) can be very complex. VSTM uses organizational processes that make the representation of an item dependent on the feature values of all displayed items as well as on these items' representations. Here, we develop a…

Empirical research has shown that when making choices based on probabilistic options, people behave as if they overestimate small probabilities, underestimate large probabilities, and treat positive and negative outcomes differently. These distortions have been modeled using a nonlinear probability weighting function, which is found in several…

Models of decision making are distinguished by those that aim for an optimal solution in a world that is precisely specified by a set of assumptions (a so-called "small world") and those that aim for a simple but satisfactory solution in an uncertain world where the assumptions of optimization models may not be met (a so-called "large world"). Few…

A fundamental issue in the design and the interpretation of experimental studies of perception relates to the question of whether the participants in these experiments could perform the perceptual task assigned to them using another feature, or cue, than that intended by the experimenter. An approach frequently used by auditory- and…

We present a new model for the general study of how the truth and biases affect human judgment. In the truth and bias model, judgments about the world are pulled by 2 primary forces, the truth force and the bias force, and these 2 forces are interrelated. The truth and bias model differentiates force and value, where the force is the strength of…

We consider the situation in which a learner must induce the rule that explains an observed set of data but the hypothesis space of possible rules is not explicitly enumerated or identified. The first part of the article demonstrates that as long as hypotheses are sparse (i.e., index less than half of the possible entities in the domain) then a…

Dube, Rotello, and Heit (2010) argued (a) that the so-called receiver operating characteristic is nonlinear for data on belief bias in syllogistic reasoning; (b) that their data are inconsistent with Klauer, Musch, and Naumer's (2000) model of belief bias; (c) that their data are inconsistent with any of the existing accounts of belief bias and…

In this postscript the authors summarize where Sun, Tweney, and Wang (see record 2010-06891-015) now agree with their original analysis and where differences of opinion remain. Sun et al.'s (see record 2010-06891-018) postscript contrasted two positions, one emphasizing the "limited and finite nature of people's experience" and one emphasizing the…

We (Hahn & Warren, 2009) recently proposed a new account of the systematic errors and biases that appear to be present in people's perception of randomly generated events. In a comment on that article, Sun, Tweney, and Wang (2010) critiqued our treatment of the gambler's fallacy. We had argued that this fallacy was less gross an error than it…

In "Assessing the Belief Bias Effect With ROCs: It's a Response Bias Effect," Dube, Rotello, and Heit (2010) examined the form of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for reasoning and the effects of belief bias on measurement indices that differ in whether they imply a curved or linear ROC function. We concluded that the ROC…

Recent research has argued that several well-known judgment biases may be due to biases in the available information sample rather than to biased information processing. Most of these sample-based explanations assume that decision makers are "naive": They are not aware of the biases in the available information sample and do not correct for them.…

We present a signal detection-like model termed the stochastic detection and retrieval model (SDRM) for use in studying metacognition. Focusing on paradigms that relate retrieval (e.g., recall or recognition) and confidence judgments, the SDRM measures (1) variance in the retrieval process, (2) variance in the confidence process, (3) the extent to…

In this postscript the authors applaud Hahn and Warren's effort in their reply to remove the ambiguity in distinguishing events such as occurrence, occurrence at least once, and nonoccurrence in Hahn and Warren (2009). Still, it appears that differences between us exist regarding the nature of waiting time and its connections to the probability of…

A robust finding in social psychology is that people judge negative events as less likely to happen to themselves than to the average person, a behavior interpreted as showing that people are "unrealistically optimistic" in their judgments of risk concerning future life events. However, we demonstrate how unbiased responses can result in data…

Jans, Peters, and De Weerd (2010) examined the studies demonstrating that spatial attention can be split across 2 noncontiguous target locations. They find all these studies to be flawed and conclude that spatial attention only selects a single location at any given time. They do, however, suggest that there could be exceptional circumstances that…