Reference intervals, or reference ranges, aid medical decision-making by containing a pre-specified proportion (e.g., 95%) of the measurements in a representative healthy population. We recently proposed three approaches for estimating a reference interval from a meta-analysis based on a random effects model: a frequentist approach, a Bayesian…

Knowledge tracing (KT) models are a popular approach for predicting students' future performance at practice problems using their prior attempts. Though many innovations have been made in KT, most models including the state-of-the-art Deep KT (DKT) mainly leverage each student's response either as correct or incorrect, ignoring its content. In…

Given the replication crisis in cognitive science, it is important to consider what researchers need to do in order to report results that are reliable. We consider three changes in current practice that have the potential to deliver more realistic and robust claims. First, the planned experiment should be divided into two stages, an exploratory…

Currently available (classical) testing procedures for the network autocorrelation can only be used for falsifying a precise null hypothesis of no network effect. Classical methods can be neither used for quantifying evidence for the null nor for testing multiple hypotheses simultaneously. This article presents flexible Bayes factor testing…

Purpose: Corpus analyses of spontaneous language fragments of varying length provide useful insights in the language change caused by brain damage, such as caused by some forms of dementia. Sample size is an important experimental parameter to consider when designing spontaneous language analyses studies. Sample length influences the confidence…

Model evaluation -- the process of making inferences about the performance of predictive models -- is a critical component of predictive modelling research in learning analytics. We survey the state of the practice with respect to model evaluation in learning analytics, which overwhelmingly uses only naïve methods for model evaluation or…

In network meta-analysis, the use of fixed baseline treatment effects (a priori independent) in a contrast-based approach is regularly preferred to the use of random baseline treatment effects (a priori dependent). That is because, often, there is not a need to model baseline treatment effects, which carry the risk of model misspecification.…

The informativity of a computational model of language acquisition is directly related to how closely it approximates the actual acquisition task, sometimes referred to as the model's "cognitive plausibility." We suggest that though every computational model necessarily idealizes the modeled task, an informative language acquisition…

In special education, multilevel models of single-case research have been used as a method of estimating treatment effects over time and across individuals. Although multilevel models can accurately summarize the effect, it is known that if the model is misspecified, inferences about the effects can be biased. Concern with the potential for model…

This article presents a study on the variables promoting student retention in distance undergraduate courses at Federal University of Pará, aiming to help school managers minimize student attrition and maximize retention until graduation. The theoretical background is based on Rovai's Composite Model and the methodological approach is conditional…

Many interacting factors contribute to a student's choice of a university. This study takes a systems perspective of the choice and develops a Bayesian Network to represent and quantify these factors and their interactions. The systems model is illustrated through a small study of traditional school leavers in Australia, and highlights…

Self-determination theory (SDT) is one of the most well-known approaches to achievement motivation. However, the three basic psychological needs of SDT have not received equivalent attention in the literature: priority has been given to autonomy, followed by the need for competence, with research into relatedness lacking (Bachman and Stewart in…

In recent years, an increasing number of analyses in Learning Analytics and Educational Data Mining (EDM) have adopted a "Discovery with Models" approach, where an existing model is used as a key component in a new EDM/analytics analysis. This article presents a theoretical discussion on the emergence of discovery with models, its…

In this paper we describe the development and refinement of "evidence rules" and "measurement models" within the "evidence model" of the "evidence-centered design" (ECD) framework in the context of the "Packet Tracer" digital learning environment of the "Cisco Networking Academy." Using…

In studies of change in education and numerous other fields, interest often centers on how differences in the status of individuals at the start of a period of substantive interest relate to differences in subsequent change. In this article, the authors present a fully Bayesian approach to estimating three-level Hierarchical Models in which latent…