Superstitious behaviors persist across time, culture, and age. Although often considered irrational and even potentially harmful, superstitions have recently been shown to have positive effects on stress levels, confidence, and ultimately, performance. However, it remains unclear how people conceive of superstitious behaviors, specifically,…

Research in the social and behavioral sciences relies on a wide range of experimental and quasi-experimental designs to estimate the causal effects of specific programs, policies, and events. In this paper we highlight measurement issues relevant to evaluating the validity of causal estimation and generalization. These issues impact all four…

People often rely on the covariation between events to infer causality. However, covariation between cues and outcomes may change over time. In the associative learning literature, extinction provides a model to study updating of causal beliefs when a previously established relationship no longer holds. Prediction error theories can explain both…

Although cross-sectional studies depict (negative) emotions as both antecedents and consequences of trait procrastination, longitudinal studies examining reciprocal relationships between procrastination and emotions are scant. Yet, investigating reciprocal relationships between procrastination and emotions within long-term frameworks can shed…

Most current statistics courses include some instruction relevant to causal inference. Whether this instruction is incorporated as material on randomized experiments or as an interpretation of associations measured by correlation or regression coefficients, the way in which this material is presented may have important implications for…

Considering the increasing severity of environmental disasters and the scarcity of studies centered on children's perspectives, this article explores context-based learning to create spaces of hope. Constructing explanations fosters meaning creation and knowledge integration. Fourth graders' self-explanations about contamination in a degraded…

Generic language (e.g., "tigers have stripes") leads children to assume that the referenced category (e.g., tigers) is inductively informative and provides a causal explanation for the behavior of individual members. In two preregistered studies with 4- to 7-year-old children (N = 497), we considered the mechanisms underlying these…

In mixed methods approaches, statistical models are used to identify "nested" cases for intensive, small-n investigation for a range of purposes, including notably the examination of causal mechanisms. This article shows that under a commonsense interpretation of causal effects, large-n models allow no reliable conclusions about effect…

Does "X" affect "Y"? Answering this question is particularly difficult if reverse causality is looming. Many social scientists turn to panel data to address such questions of causal ordering. Yet even in longitudinal analyses, reverse causality threatens causal inference based on conventional panel models. Whereas the…

Media articles often communicate the latest scientific findings, and readers must evaluate the evidence and consider its potential implications. Prior work has found that the inclusion of graphs makes messages about scientific data more persuasive (Tal & Wansink, 2016). One explanation for this finding is that such visualizations evoke the…

Conventional advice discourages controlling for postoutcome variables in regression analysis. By contrast, we show that controlling for commonly available postoutcome (i.e., future) values of the treatment variable can help detect, reduce, and even remove omitted variable bias (unobserved confounding). The premise is that the same unobserved…

The impact of a major historical event on child and youth development has been of great interest in the study of the life course. This study is focused on assessing the causal effect of the Great Recession on youth disconnection from school and work. Building on the insights offered by the age-period-cohort research, econometric methods, and…

Qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) is an influential methodological approach motivated by set theory and boolean logic. QCA proponents have developed algorithms to analyze quantitative data, in a bid to uncover necessary and sufficient conditions where causal relationships are complex, conditional, or asymmetric. This article uses computer…

Beliefs about the controllability of positive or negative events in the environment can shape learning throughout the lifespan. Previous research has shown that adults' learning is modulated by beliefs about the causal structure of the environment such that they update their value estimates to a lesser extent when the outcomes can be attributed to…

This paper provides the first mixed methods theory of causation. According to the theory, the researcher must carefully construct a causal mosaic for each research study, articulating what is causally relevant given his/her research questions, purposes, method(s), methodology(ies), paradigms(s), and resources. To engage in this "mixed…