Describes an enrollment projection approach that can easily show the complete dynamics of institutional enrollment change and can involve upper management in the development and understanding of important assumptions underlying the projection activity. (Author/MLF)

A model is presented that combines a polynomial lag econometric model with a goal programming model to satisfy the known conditions while making efficient use of limited data. The model is applied to data for a large public university. (Author/MLW)

The second preliminary report on the development and planning for a community college to serve the Fairbanks area covers the following topics: (1) events since the first preliminary report, (2) meetings with community groups, (3) recommendations and concerns of university faculty, (4) the population to be served by the community college, (5) the…

Reliance on enrollment trend models for revenue projections has led to a scenario of alternating overbudgeted and underbudgeted years. A study of a large, public university indicates that time series analysis should be used instead to anticipate the orderly seasonal and cyclical patterns that are visible in a period of moderate trend growth.…

A college marketing model consisting of several strategies and contingency plans for decision-making under difficult conditions is outlined. The plan provides for orderly transition from one marketing stage to the next logical stage, allowing some control over both internal and external environments, and providing insight into the delicate…

An enrollment projection model designed and implemented at LaSalle College had five phases: establishing clear goals, model construction, model implementation, model estimation and validation, and using the forecast. The history of LaSalle's model and the elements in decision making are outlined. (MSE)

The North Carolina Department of Community Colleges offers a variety of services which are intended to enable institutions within that state to identify, develop, and deliver their services in an efficient and effective manner. This document provides the local institution with a suggested model which might be used in the preparation of long and…

Issues of strategy and statesmanship that characterize the period prior to a decision for a college merger are addressed. Attention is directed to models of private college merger, based on patterns used in the 1970s, and innovations sponsored by foundations in the early 1980s. Factors that increase the chance of a voluntary merger taking place…

The Departmental Enrollment Projection Model (DEPM), which is based on the assumption that enrollments are essentially influenced by economic and social forces, is described. Under the model's approach, the department, rather than the institution as a whole, is seen as the focal point of both the enrollment projection and, by implication, the…

Accountability in higher education most often concentrates on what and how to measure performance, but less often on how it can be used for planning, managing, and teaching. Besides serving higher education's consumers, accountability measures should also serve those who plan and manage institutions, especially those engaged in managing…

This paper describes an enrollment forecasting model that was developed in 1988 by the Office of Institutional Research for a small, private, liberal arts college (Wesley College, Delaware). The college, shifting in demographics from its historical junior college mission to that of a comprehensive baccalaureate institution, required a forecasting…

Achieving enrollment goals continues to be a major administrative concern in higher education. Enrollment management can be assisted through the use of computerized planning and forecast models. Although commercially available Markov transition type curve fitting models have been developed and used, a microcomputer-based decision planning model…

The development of a predictive equation capable of explaining a significant percentage of enrollment variability at Florida International University is described. A model utilizing trend analysis and a multiple regression approach to enrollment forecasting was adapted to investigate enrollment dynamics at the university. Four independent…

A management of decline approach is contrasted with a model based on strategic planning and contingency budgeting for higher education. The strategic planning model is seen as a broader, more effective approach based on an assessment of what outcomes could be if enrollment strategies were effective in attracting students. (MLW)

The history of a higher education demand assessment program in Manitoba is outlined, beginning with a sharp dip in enrollment in 1970. A three-year project was begun with three snapshot surveys of grade 12 decision-making in February, May, and June. The second year involved two snapshots, and the third used only one. During this time, attitudes…