Institutional staff such as enrollment managers, business officers, and institutional researchers are often asked to predict enrollments. Developing any predictive model can be intimidating, particularly when there is no textbook to follow. This paper provides a practical framework for generating enrollment projection options and for evaluating…

This report is concerned with the development of a model for projecting the enrollments of The Pennsylvania State University by simulating the flow of students through the campuses and colleges of which the institution is composed. Because it concerns a twenty-two campus system of a single university, it not only constitutes an institutional…

Introduces a model for estimating the amount of revenue a typical student will bring to an institution of higher education. The model uses event history analysis to analyze the length of time a typical student will remain enrolled, and then uses this estimate in combination with tuition numbers to arrive at revenue estimates. (EV)

This report describes a higher education enrollment projection model developed for the state of Washington. The model operates on a student flow concept quantifying students through the flows of entrances, retention, transfers, and exits. The model is based on the assumption that the manner in which students now move through the State's higher…

A model and implementation process is presented for projecting student headcount and credit hour and contact hour enrollment for each academic area and all areas aggregated by semester and fiscal year for each campus of Montgomery College, Maryland. The projection model is suggested as a managerial tool to assist the college's management to…

A smoothing model was applied to the transition ratios of the number of university students in successive time periods. Each application was conditional on the department and year of student. The results may be applied to any level of aggregation in the institution. (Author/LBH)

An important part of the analysis of the expected effects of institutional closure is estimation of redistribution of students attending the closed school. How coefficient estimates from models of enrollment demand can be used to predict the alternative attendance choices of students enrolled at the closed school is discussed. (Author/MLW)

Enrollment declines during the next 15 years in the college-age group, especially in the country's northeastern quadrant, are discussed. In the northeastern region, enrollment declines are likely to be twice the national rate. A model, designed to reflect what is likely to happen, is provided. (MLW)

Achieving enrollment goals continues to be a major administrative concern in higher education. Enrollment management can be assisted through the use of computerized planning and forecast models. Although commercially available Markov transition type curve fitting models have been developed and used, a microcomputer-based decision planning model…

Three models for calculating college student retention rates and predicting enrollments are examined: (1) the Cohort Ratio Model; (2) the Longitudinal Persistence Model; and (3) the Markov Process Model. The last is seen as more encompassing, with wider applicability range, and useful in tracking student change in major and movement in and out of…

A management of decline approach is contrasted with a model based on strategic planning and contingency budgeting for higher education. The strategic planning model is seen as a broader, more effective approach based on an assessment of what outcomes could be if enrollment strategies were effective in attracting students. (MLW)

An analysis of Great Britain's higher education system, primarily between 1981 and 1994, considers the possible implication of demographic trends and how that pattern may change over the next 15 years. The purpose of the paper is to direct public attention to the issues and encourage debate rather than present discrete policy options. Planning…

This report describes the development and application of a model to study the movement of students in, through, and out of higher education in Australia. The model is designed to project the number of students, graduates, and dropouts by age, gender, and broad field of study. The model also estimates the probability of a student completing a…

Two quantitative enrollment projection techniques and the methods used by researchers at the Ohio Board of Regents (OBR) are discussed. Two quantitative approaches that are typically used for enrollment projections are curve-fitting techniques and causal models. Many state forecasters use curve-fitting techniques, a popular approach because only…

Demographic factors that will determine enrollment potential and service needs for California's segments of postsecondary education over the next 15 years are examined. Attention is directed to total population, age distribution, race composition, geographic distribution, and socioeconomic status. To provide some indication of changes that might…