Probability is a difficult concept, which is not always taught accurately. This study aims to clarify how experimental and theoretical probabilities are taught in Japanese 7th and 8th grades through a textbook analysis. We analyzed seven, government approved Japanese 7th and 8th grade textbooks each. Focusing on the definition and explanation of…

Judgments of learning (JOL) are often used to assess memory monitoring at encoding. Participants study a cue-target word pair (e.g., mouse-cheese) and are asked to rate the probability of correctly recalling the target in the presence of the cue at test (e.g., mouse -?). Prior research has shown that JOL accuracy is sensitive to perceptual cues.…

Population adjustment methods such as matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC) are increasingly used to compare marginal treatment effects when there are cross-trial differences in effect modifiers and limited patient-level data. MAIC is based on propensity score weighting, which is sensitive to poor covariate overlap and cannot extrapolate…

The purpose of this study was to conduct a conceptual replication of Pendergast et al.'s (2018) study that examined the diagnostic accuracy of a nomogram procedure, also known as a naive Bayesian approach. The specific naive Bayesian approach combined academic and social-emotional and behavioral (SEB) screening data to predict student performance…

Categorical perception (CP) effects manifest as faster or more accurate discrimination between objects that come from different categories compared with objects that come from the same category, controlling for the physical differences between the objects. The most popular explanations of CP effects have relied on perceptual warping causing…

Metrics including Cohen's kappa, precision, recall, and F[subscript 1] are common measures of performance for models of discrete student states, such as a student's affect or behaviour. This study examined discrete model metrics for previously published student model examples to identify situations where metrics provided differing perspectives on…

Two masked priming experiments investigated the impact of prime lexicality (word vs. nonword) and the pseudo-morphological structure of prime stimuli (pseudosuffixed vs. nonsuffixed) on embedded word priming effects. In the related prime conditions, target words were embedded at the beginning of prime stimuli and were followed either by a…

In item response theory (IRT) modeling, the Fisher information matrix is used for numerous inferential procedures such as estimating parameter standard errors, constructing test statistics, and facilitating test scoring. In principal, these procedures may be carried out using either the expected information or the observed information. However, in…

The aim of this study is to explore the judgments and reasoning in probabilistic tasks that require comparing two probabilities either with or without introducing an additional degree of uncertainty. The reasoning associated with the task having an additional condition of uncertainty has not been discussed in previous studies. The 66 undergraduate…

In adaptive learning systems, various models are employed to obtain the optimal learning schedule and review for a specific learner. Models of learning are used to estimate the learner's current recall probability by incorporating features or predictors proposed by psychological theory or empirically relevant to learners' performance. Logistic…

The use of individual patient data (IPD) in network meta-analysis (NMA) is becoming increasingly popular. However, as most studies do not report IPD, most NMAs are performed using aggregate data for at least some, if not all, of the studies. We investigate the benefits of including varying proportions of IPD studies in an NMA. Several models have…

Classification consistency and accuracy are viewed as important indicators for evaluating the reliability and validity of classification results in cognitive diagnostic assessment (CDA). Pattern-level classification consistency and accuracy indices were introduced by Cui, Gierl, and Chang. However, the indices at the attribute level have not yet…

Much of our real-life decision making is bounded by uncertain information, limitations in cognitive resources, and a lack of time to allocate to the decision process. It is thought that humans overcome these limitations through "satisficing," fast but "good-enough" heuristic decision making that prioritizes some sources of…

As an assessment method based on a constructivist approach, peer assessment has become popular in recent years. However, in peer assessment, a problem remains that reliability depends on the rater characteristics. For this reason, some item response models that incorporate rater parameters have been proposed. Those models are expected to improve…

The three purposes of this study were to (a) describe fraction ordering errors among at-risk fourth grade students, (b) assess the effect of part-whole understanding and accuracy of fraction magnitude estimation on the probability of committing errors, and (c) examine the effect of students' ability to explain comparing problems on the probability…