The goal of the current study was to introduce a new stopping rule for computerized adaptive testing (CAT). The predicted standard error reduction (PSER) stopping rule uses the predictive posterior variance to determine the reduction in standard error that would result from the administration of additional items. The performance of the PSER was…

The predictive analysis approach to adaptive testing originated in the idea of statistical predictive analysis suggested by J. Aitchison and I.R. Dunsmore (1975). The adaptive testing model proposed is based on parameter-free predictive distribution. Aitchison and Dunsmore define statistical prediction analysis as the use of data obtained from an…

A predictive adaptive testing (PAT) strategy was developed based on statistical predictive analysis, and its feasibility was studied by comparing PAT performance to those of the Flexilevel, Bayesian modal, and expected a posteriori (EAP) strategies in a simulated environment. The proposed adaptive test is based on the idea of using item difficulty…