Sensitivity analysis, a statistical method crucial for validating inferences across disciplines, quantifies the conditions that could alter conclusions (Razavi et al., 2021). One line of work is rooted in linear models and foregrounds the sensitivity of inferences to the strength of omitted variables (Cinelli & Hazlett, 2019; Frank, 2000). A…

We provide a novel characterization of augmented balancing weights, also known as automatic debiased machine learning (AutoDML). These popular "doubly robust" or "de-biased machine learning estimators" combine outcome modeling with balancing weights -- weights that achieve covariate balance directly in lieu of estimating and…

Beginning with debates about the effects of smoking on lung cancer, sensitivity analyses characterizing the hypothetical unobserved conditions that can alter statistical inferences have had profound impacts on public policy. One of the most ascendant techniques for sensitivity analysis is Oster's (2019) coefficient of proportionality, which…

Single-case experimental designs (SCEDs) have been used with increasing frequency to identify evidence-based interventions in education. The purpose of this study was to explore how several procedural characteristics, including within-phase variability (i.e., measurement error), number of baseline observations, and number of intervention…

Mixed Membership Models (MMMs) are a popular family of latent structure models for complex multivariate data. Instead of forcing each subject to belong to a single cluster, MMMs incorporate a vector of subject-specific weights characterizing partial membership across clusters. With this flexibility come challenges in uniquely identifying,…

Bayesian inference for structural equation models (SEMs) is increasingly popular in social and psychological sciences owing to its flexibility to adapt to more complex models and the ability to include prior information if available. However, there are two major hurdles in using the traditional Bayesian SEM in practice: (1) the information nested…

A common divide-and-conquer approach for Bayesian computation with big data is to partition the data, perform local inference for each piece separately, and combine the results to obtain a global posterior approximation. While being conceptually and computationally appealing, this method involves the problematic need to also split the prior for…

Randomized A/B tests allow causal estimation without confounding but are often under-powered. This paper uses a new dataset, including over 250 randomized comparisons conducted in an online learning platform, to illustrate a method combining data from A/B tests with log data from users who were not in the experiment. Inference remains exact and…

Multidimensional Item Response Theory (MIRT) is widely used in educational and psychological assessment and evaluation. With the increasing size of modern assessment data, many existing estimation methods become computationally demanding and hence they are not scalable to big data, especially for the multidimensional three-parameter and…

A wide range of machine-learning-based approaches have been developed in the past decade, increasing our ability to accurately model nonlinear and nonadditive response surfaces. This has improved performance for inferential tasks such as estimating average treatment effects in situations where standard parametric models may not fit the data well.…

When working with multimodal Bayesian posterior distributions, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have difficulty moving between modes, and default variational or mode-based approximate inferences will understate posterior uncertainty. And, even if the most important modes can be found, it is difficult to evaluate their relative weights in…

In the November 2016 U.S. presidential election, many state level public opinion polls, particularly in the Upper Midwest, incorrectly predicted the winning candidate. One leading explanation for this polling miss is that the precipitous decline in traditional polling response rates led to greater reliance on statistical methods to adjust for the…

When designing a study for causal mediation analysis, it is crucial to conduct a power analysis to determine the sample size required to detect the causal mediation effects with sufficient power. However, the development of power analysis methods for causal mediation analysis has lagged far behind. To fill the knowledge gap, I proposed a…

The synthetic control method (SCM) is a popular approach for estimating the impact of a treatment on a single unit in panel data settings. The "synthetic control" is a weighted average of control units that balances the treated unit's pre-treatment outcomes and other covariates as closely as possible. A critical feature of the original…

Given two 2-level factors of interest, a 2[superscript 2] split-plot design (a) takes each of the 2 [superscript 2] = 4 possible factorial combinations as a treatment, (b) identifies one factor as `whole-plot,' (c) divides the experimental units into blocks, and (d) assigns the treatments in such away that all units within the same block receive…