The present simulation study indicates that a method where the regression effect of a predictor (X) on an outcome at follow-up (Y1) is calculated while adjusting for the outcome at baseline (Y0) can give spurious findings, especially when there is a strong correlation between X and Y0 and when the test-retest correlation between Y0 and Y1 is…

We consider two-level models where a continuous response R and continuous covariates C are assumed missing at random. Inferences based on maximum likelihood or Bayes are routinely made by estimating their joint normal distribution from observed data R[subscript obs] and C[subscript obs]. However, if the model for R given C includes random…

Identifying mediators in variable chains as part of a causal mediation analysis can shed light on issues of causation, assessment, and intervention. However, coefficients and effect sizes in a causal mediation analysis are nearly always small. This can lead those less familiar with the approach to reject the results of causal mediation analysis.…

The current simulation study examined the effects of Item Parameter Drift (IPD) occurring in a short scale on parameter estimates in multilevel models where scores from a scale were employed as a time-varying predictor to account for outcome scores. Five factors, including three decisions about IPD, were considered for simulation conditions. It…

The design of research studies utilizing binary multilevel models must necessarily incorporate knowledge of multiple factors, including estimation method, variance component size, or number of predictors, in addition to sample sizes. This Monte Carlo study examined the performance of random effect binary outcome multilevel models under varying…

The focus of this paper is assessing the impact of measurement errors on the prediction error of an observed-score regression. Measures are presented and described for decomposing the linear regression's prediction error variance into parts attributable to the true score variance and the error variances of the dependent variable and the predictor…

Nearly all quantitative analyses in higher education draw from incomplete datasets-a common problem with no universal solution. In the first part of this paper, we explain why missing data matter and outline the advantages and disadvantages of six common methods for handling missing data. Next, we analyze real-world data from 5,905 students across…

This paper re-considers the widespread use of value-added approaches to estimate school "effects", and shows the results to be very unstable over time. The paper uses as an example the contextualised value-added scores of all secondary schools in England. The study asks how many schools with at least 99% of their pupils included in the…

The problem of factor score indeterminacy implies that the factor and the error scores cannot be completely disentangled in the factor model. It is therefore proposed to compute Harman's factor score predictor that contains an additive combination of factor and error variance. This additive combination is discussed in the framework of classical…

Interval estimation of intraclass correlation coefficients in hierarchical designs is discussed within a latent variable modeling framework. A method accomplishing this aim is outlined, which is applicable in two-level studies where participants (or generally lower-order units) are clustered within higher-order units. The procedure can also be…

This study used Monte Carlo simulation to examine the properties of the overall odds ratio (OOR), which was recently introduced as an index for overall effect size in multiple logistic regression. It was found that the OOR was relatively independent of study base rate and performed better than most commonly used R-square analogs in indexing model…

The purpose of this study was to investigate the accuracy of parents' perception of children's reaching limits in a risk scenario. A sample of 68 parents of 1- to 4-year-olds were asked to make a prior estimate of their children's behavior and action limits in a task that involved retrieving a toy out of the water. The action modes used for…

Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This seventh installment of "Explorations in Statistics" explores regression, a technique that estimates the nature of the relationship between two things for which we may only surmise a mechanistic or predictive…

A new effect size representing the predictive power of an independent variable from a multiple regression model is presented. The index, denoted as r[subscript sp], is the semipartial correlation of the predictor with the outcome of interest. This effect size can be computed when multiple predictor variables are included in the regression model…

Interaction and quadratic effects in latent variable models have to date only rarely been tested in practice. Traditional product indicator approaches need to create product indicators (e.g., x[superscript 2] [subscript 1], x[subscript 1]x[subscript 4]) to serve as indicators of each nonlinear latent construct. These approaches require the use of…