This paper describes an investigation looking at the underlying mathematics of poker machines. The aim of the investigation is for students to get an appreciation of how poker machines are designed to ensure that in the long-term players will inevitably lose when playing. The first part of this paper describes how students can model a simple poker…

Stan is a probabilistic programming language for specifying statistical models. A Stan program imperatively defines a log probability function over parameters conditioned on specified data and constants. As of version 2.14.0, Stan provides full Bayesian inference for continuous-variable models through Markov chain Monte Carlo methods such as the…

It has been proposed that causal power (defined as the probability with which a candidate cause would produce an effect in the absence of any other background causes) can be intuitively computed from cause-effect covariation information. Estimation of power is assumed to require a special type of counterfactual probe question, worded to remove…