Binary logistic regression is one of the most widely used statistical tools. The method uses odds, log odds, and odds ratios, which are difficult to understand and interpret. Understanding of logistic regression tends to fall down in one of three ways: (1) Many students and researchers come to believe that an odds ratio translates directly into…

The standard regression technique for modeling binary response variables in education research is logistic regression. The odds ratios from these models are used to quantify and communicate variable effects. These effects are sometimes pooled together as in a meta-analysis. We argue that this process is problematic as odds ratios calculated from…

The motivating example for this paper comes from a distributed health data network, the International Consortium of Orthopaedic Registries (ICOR), which aims to examine risk factors for orthopedic device failure for registries around the world. Unfortunately, regulatory, privacy, and propriety concerns made sharing of raw data impossible, even if…

Individuals can partly recreate the "wisdom of crowds" within their own minds by combining nonredundant estimates they themselves have generated. Herzog and Hertwig (2009) showed that this accuracy gain could be boosted by urging people to actively think differently when generating a 2nd estimate ("dialectical bootstrapping").…

We quantified the effect of first experience on behavior in operant learning and studied its underlying computational principles. To that goal, we analyzed more than 200,000 choices in a repeated-choice experiment. We found that the outcome of the first experience has a substantial and lasting effect on participants' subsequent behavior, which we…

The Cox proportional hazards model and the accelerated failure time model are frequently used in survival data analysis. They are powerful, yet have limitation due to their model assumptions. Quantile regression offers a semiparametric approach to model data with possible heterogeneity. It is particularly powerful for censored responses, where the…

Propensity score methods allow investigators to estimate causal treatment effects using observational or nonrandomized data. In this article we provide a practical illustration of the appropriate steps in conducting propensity score analyses. For illustrative purposes, we use a sample of current smokers who were discharged alive after being…

This paper considers the process by which individuals estimate the risk of adverse events, with particular attention to the social context in which risk estimates are formed. We compare subjective probability estimates of crime victimization to actual victimization experiences among respondents from the 1994 to 2002 waves of the Survey of Economic…

The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

This paper develops a series of models for optimal tuition pricing for private colleges and universities. The university is assumed to be a profit maximizing, price discriminating monopolist. The enrollment decision of student's is stochastic in nature. The university offers an effective tuition rate, comprised of stipulated tuition less financial…

The concept of risk has entered into physics courses in various guises. It is treated explicitly in the "Advancing Physics" [1] course and implicitly at GCSE through "Ideas and Evidence" discussions. This could easily lead to such ideas as the balance between treatment and risk in radiotherapy and the likelihood of an asteroid strike. In this…