Sociologists increasingly face choices among competing algorithms that represent reasonable approaches to the same task, with little guidance in choosing among them. We develop a strategy that uses simulated data to identify the conditions under which different methods perform well and applies what is learned from the simulations to predict which…

Knowledge tracing (KT) for evaluating students' knowledge is an essential task in personalized education. More and more researchers have devoted themselves to solving KT tasks, e.g., deep knowledge tracing (DKT), which can capture more sophisticated representations of student knowledge. Nonetheless, these techniques ignore the reconstruction of…

Sub-Saharan Africa exhibits higher fertility and lower education than other world regions. Economic and demographic theory posit that these phenomena are linked, with slow fertility decline connected to slow education growth among both adults and children. Using microdata from 33 African countries, this paper documents the co-evolution of adult…

Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression provides optimal linear predictions of a dependent variable, y, given an independent variable, x, but OLS regressions are not symmetric or reversible. In order to get optimal linear predictions of x given y, a separate OLS regression in that direction would be needed. This report provides a least squares…

Developmental researchers often have research questions about cross-lag effects--the effect of one variable predicting a second variable at a subsequent time point. The cross-lag panel model (CLPM) is often fit to longitudinal panel data to examine cross-lag effects; however, its utility has recently been called into question because of its…

The interactive learning is a continuous process, which is full of a large number of learning interaction activities. The data generated between learners and learning interaction activities can reflect the online learning behaviors. Through the correlation analysis among learning interaction activities, this paper discusses the potential…

As a personality trait, second language (L2) grit--a combination of perseverance and passion for L2 learning--has recently been proposed as a meaningful predictor of learners' motivational behavior and L2 achievement. The results of a growing body of empirical studies carried out in various L2 contexts have substantiated the power of L2 grit in…

Propensity to judge randomly generated, syntactically correct (i.e., bullshit) statements as profound is associated with a variety of conceptually relevant variables (e.g., intuitive cognitive style and supernatural beliefs). Besides generalizing these findings to a different cultural setting, we examined the relationships to sharing the bullshit…

This paper presents new benefit-cost estimates for the Tulsa universal preschool program. These calculations are based on estimated effects from previous papers of Tulsa pre-K on high school graduation rates and college attendance rates of students who were enrolled in kindergarten in Tulsa Public Schools in the fall of 2006. In this paper,…

There has been much discussion in educational policy on the apparent educational benefits for disadvantaged young people of engaging in schools' extra-curricular activities (ECAs). The evidence suggests strong associations between ECAs and improved educational attainments. Arguments made about the causal processes and underpinning associations…

With a decision pending in two lawsuits challenging race-conscious admissions practices at Harvard and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC), many observers are predicting that the US Supreme Court will significantly limit, if not completely prohibit, the use of race in college and university admissions. However if the United…

This paper critiques the so-called "Green Revolution" as a political myth of averted famine. A "political myth," among other functions, reflects a narrative structure that characterizes understandings of causality between policy action and outcome. As such, the details of a particular political myth elevate certain policy…

The literature provides multiple measures of diversity along a single demographic dimension, but when it comes to studying the interaction of multiple diversity types (e.g. age, gender, and race), the field of useable measures diminishes. We present the use of decision trees as a machine learning technique to automatically identify the…

We study learning outcome prediction for online courses. Whereas prior work has focused on semester-long courses with frequent student assessments, we focus on short-courses that have single outcomes assigned by instructors at the end. The lack of performance data and generally small enrollments makes the behavior of learners, captured as they…

In this classic edition of their ground-breaking work, Usha Goswami and Peter Bryant revisit their influential theory about how phonological skills support the development of literacy. The book describes three causal factors which can account for children's reading and spelling development: (1) pre­school phonological knowledge of rhyme and…