Predicting student performance using educational data is a significant area of machine learning research. However, class imbalance in datasets and the challenge of developing interpretable models can hinder accuracy. This study compares different variations of the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) combined with classification…

This work explores how population-based engagement prediction can address cold-start at scale in large learning resource collections. The paper introduces: (1) VLE, a novel dataset that consists of content and video based features extracted from publicly available scientific video lectures coupled with implicit and explicit signals related to…

As institutions seek to shift into more advanced analytics and data-based decision-support, many institutional research offices face the challenge of meeting the office's current demands while taking on more intricate and specialized work to support decision-making. Given the great need organizations have for information that supports real-time…

Learning techniques have proven their capacity to treat large amount of data. Most statistical learning approaches use specific size learning sets and create static models. Withal, in certain some situations such as incremental or active learning the learning process can work with only a smal amount of data. In this case, the search for algorithms…

Predictive modeling is a core technique used in tackling various tasks in learning analytics research, e.g., classifying educational forum posts, predicting learning performance, and identifying at-risk students. When applying a predictive model, it is often treated as the first priority to improve its prediction accuracy as much as possible.…

Despite calls to increase the focus on explainability and interpretability in EDM and, in particular, student success prediction, so that it becomes useful for personalized intervention systems, only few efforts have been undertaken in that direction so far. In this paper, we argue that this is mainly due to the limitations of current Explainable…

Sociologists increasingly face choices among competing algorithms that represent reasonable approaches to the same task, with little guidance in choosing among them. We develop a strategy that uses simulated data to identify the conditions under which different methods perform well and applies what is learned from the simulations to predict which…

Many studies have linked quality in early childhood education and care [ECEC] to school performance, but the mechanisms of how ECEC process quality affects children in ways that lead to improved school performance is unclear. In this study on 7431 children in Norway, we test the hypothesis that the relation between process quality in ECEC and…

Agent-based models (ABMs) often rely on psychometric constructs such as 'opinions', 'stubbornness', 'happiness', etc. The measurement process for these constructs is quite different from the one used in physics as there is no standardized unit of measurement for opinion or happiness. Consequently, measurements are usually affected by 'psychometric…

In this study, we investigated participants' reactions to supportive and anomalous data in the context of population dynamics. Based on previous findings on conceptions about ecosystems and responses to anomalous data, we assumed a tendency to confirm the initial prediction after dealing with contradicting data. Our aim was to integrate a…

Determining the number of factors in exploratory factor analysis is arguably the most crucial decision a researcher faces when conducting the analysis. While several simulation studies exist that compare various so-called factor retention criteria under different data conditions, little is known about the impact of missing data on this process.…

In institutional research, modern data mining approaches are seldom considered to address predictive analytics problems. The goal of this paper is to highlight the advantages of tree-based machine learning algorithms over classic (logistic) regression methods for data-informed decision making in higher education problems, and stress the success of…

The research aims to determine the factors affecting PISA 2018 reading skills using the Random Forest and MARS methods and to compare their prediction abilities. This study used the information from 5713 students, 2838 (49.7%) male and 2875 (50.3%) female, in the PISA 2018 Turkey. The analysis shows the MARS method performed better than the Random…

Few data-driven approaches are available to estimate the risk of conclusion change in systematic review updates. We developed a rule-based approach to automatically extract information from reviews and updates to be used as features for modelling conclusion change risk. Rules were developed to extract relevant information from published Cochrane…

College-level statistics courses emphasize the use of the coefficient of determination, R-squared, in evaluating a linear regression model: higher R-squared is better. This often gives students an impression that higher R-squared implies better predictability since textbooks tend to use sample data to support the theory and students rarely have an…